Bakhmut & The Ukraine Trench War - fortifications, attrition, and lessons
für € kaufen ··· 4fqHERDXVpk ··· 1121112000 ··· As always, please check the pinned comment for any notes or corrections. For months now, a city with a pre-war population of 70,000 has been the focus of relentless artillery and infantry attacks by the Russian military and the "Wagner PMC." For many commentators, the attacks seem nonsensical. At a time when Russia is pivoting to defence just about everywhere else along the line, why keep pouring men and materiel into a city that simply doesn't have value relative to the effort expended trying to take it. In this video I zoom in on the battle for Bakhmut, and explore its history, implications, and some of what we have heard about the tactics there. At the same time, we also look at Russia's campaign of fortification building across much of the rest of Ukraine (and Russia). As the world focuses on Russia's Bakhmut attacks, Russia is throwing up belts of defences that...for now at least...seem to have some of the hallmarks of typical Russian defence procurement. Many thanks to the people who provided input into this episode, with a special thanks to Sgt. Kates - USMC, for giving the kind of input only a combat engineer can (I do not have any idea how to clear a minefield) As always, this video represents merely person views based on imperfect information gathered during an active war. Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU Caveats: While I have attempted to discuss the factors I consider when evaluating casualty claims - the reality is that the error bars around any estimates are still extremely wide. Estimates of 1:10 ratios in some sectors at certain times are paired with claims consistent with very different situations elsewhere. Even that Ukrainian Govt estimate on Russian losses may be low - simply because of when the estimate was made and the limited territory it may have covered. This is the problem of uncertainty when viewing a war from afar. While I am confident in the analysis of matters at the overarching strategic level - be aware that the smaller you get in this war, the less certain things often become. Notes and further reading: Thanks as always to various OSINT aggregation channels whose work is critical to analysis like this. A non exhaustive list includes: https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop https://twitter.com/UAWeapons https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1602059972103348225 I do not generally link directly to Russian Telegram channels - but they provide an important source of information on how views of the war are evolving on that side. "Arty Green" - Ukrainian artillery officer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5hmhU5LvC8 Examples of constant media coverage: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/09/ukraine-russia-war-cold-donetsk-frontline https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/10/russia-ukraine-war-bakhmut-meat-grinder-deadlock https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7kwy5BVTdo4 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/27/world/europe/ukraine-war-bakhmut.html https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g51oovaB_Ss Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:40 — What Am I Talking About 00:02:37 — DIGGING TO VICTORY 00:02:43 — Fortification and Entrenchment 00:03:59 — Search for Movement 00:04:47 — Always a Risk of Reversion 00:05:17 — THE UKRAINIAN EXPERIENCE 00:05:22 — The War in The Donbass 00:06:12 — War of Movement 00:07:07 — Transfer of the Initiative 00:08:16 — Russia Digs In 00:08:38 — Even in Russia... 00:09:52 — There's Bakhmut 00:10:49 — TIMELINE 00:10:58 — Core Objective 00:11:36 — "Protecting the Donbass" 00:12:42 — The Donbass Offensive 00:14:06 — It Isn't Just Bakhmut 00:15:16 — Wagner's Verdun 00:17:05 — A Brutal Back and Forth 00:17:14 — Encirclement Plan & Ukrainian Rotation 00:18:57 — FEATURES AND EVOLUTION 00:19:08 — Entrenchment 00:20:03 — Traditional Model 00:21:04 — Wagner Waves 00:21:42 — Wagner Tactics 00:24:47 — War by the Meter 00:25:42 — The Gas Station 00:26:13 — The Garbage Dump 00:26:55 — War Made Small 00:27:46 — Infiltration Assaults 00:28:47 — Myths 00:31:18 — WHY BAKHMUT? 00:31:31 — Road to Sloviansk 00:32:47 — "Smashing Their Foreheads" 00:33:22 — So Why? 00:34:34 — IS IT WORTH IT? 00:34:38 — We're Talking About It 00:35:19 — A1: Offensive Potential 00:36:05 — A2: Attrition 00:37:10 — A3: Politics 00:37:52 — Opportunity Cost 00:38:39 — Other Options? 00:39:04 — Real Cost of Bakhmut 00:40:46 — What if Bakhmut is Taken? 00:42:04 — ASSESSING THE COST 00:42:23 — Illustrating the Point: Causality Scale 00:44:35 — Medium-high Confidence Inputs 00:45:33 — Consistency and Assumptions 00:46:18 — The Picture 00:49:45 — FEATURES AND OBSERVATIONS 00:50:05 — Wat Defaulting to Attrition 00:51:12 — Drone & Artillery Warfare 00:52:45 — "Mines are the Worst" 00:54:53 — Challenges of Breaching 00:55:53 — Sidenotes on Options... 00:56:33 — "Wagner Line" 00:57:25 — The Ugly 00:58:36 — The Significant 00:59:25 — CONCLUSIONS 01:00:47 — CHANNEL UPDATE 01:00:47 — CHANNEL UPDATE Hersteller: Marke: EAN: Kat: Video Suche Lieferzeit: Versandkosten: Icon: https://i.ytimg.com/vi/4fqHERDXVpk/mqdefault.jpg Bild:
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