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Hardcover/Naturwissenschaften, Medizin, Informatik, Technik/Mathematik/Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie, Stochastik, Mathematische Statistik


Epidemiologie und Medizinische Biometrie

····· lezzter Preis 16.90€ ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
Epidemiologie und Statistik sind in vielen Studiengängen Grundlagenfächer. Das vorliegende Buch soll in erster Linie die Teilvorlesungen `Epidemiologie` und `Medizinische Biometrie` innerhalb des Querschnittfaches `Epidemiologie, Medizinische Biometrie und Medizinische Informatik` für Studenten der Medizin begleiten. Darüber hinaus wird es interessierte Leser ansprechen, die eine Einführung in die methodischen Grundlagen beider Fächer wünschen. Ob Biologe, Pädagoge oder Sozialwissenschaftler, letztlich sollten alle, die Statistik benötigen, vom Inhalt des Buches profitieren. Neben der Erläuterung von Grundbegriffen werden im Abschnitt `Epidemiologie` Maßzahlen für Krankheitshäufigkeiten, Studientypen und vergleichende epidemiologische Maßzahlen vorgestellt. Im Abschnitt `Biometrie` findet der Leser die Grundlagen der deskriptiven Statistik, der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung und schließenden Statistik ausführlich dargestellt. Typische Anwendungsbeispiele aus der Medizin stellen den medizinischen Bezug her und sollen als Anwendungshilfen bei der Lösung medizinischer Fragestellungen dienen. Eine Reihe von Übungsaufgaben, deren ausführliche Lösungen am Ende des Buches zu finden sind, erleichtert das Verständnis. ····· 10361108417

La delincuencia en la ciudad de Guayaquil, un análisis espacial

für 17.82€ kaufen ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
Debido a la globalización y tecnificación actual del mundo se realiza un estudio de casos de acuerdo a lo establecido en la Ley con la ayuda de la tecnología solucionando de manera más eficaz y oportuna ciertos delitos, para aquello se realizó varios muestreos de casos, delitos y situaciones muy complejas en la ciudad de Guayaquil, producto de de ser ciudad donde se suscitan todos estos delitos. ····· 103614706

Biometrische Aspekte der Genomanalyse IV

für 19.50€ kaufen ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
Anliegen der Greifswalder Seminarberichte Biometrie und Medizinische Informatik ist es, die Zusammenarbeit im Berührungsfeld von Medizin, Biowissenschaften, Mathematik und Informatik zu fördern. In diesem Sinne steht die Mitarbeit an den Publikationen allen denen offen, die sich einer solchen Vermittlung zwischen den Wissenschaften verpflichtet fühlen und die dazu einen Beitrag leisten wollen. ····· 10361107285

Caracterización granulométrica a través de percentiles

····· lezzter Preis 26.10€ ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
Diversas ramas de las ciencias y las técnicas estudian los materiales compuestos por granos. Éstos pueden ser los ingredientes utilizados en la fabricación de un producto ó el mismo producto final. Las propiedades que ellos poseen están determinadas por las características de los granos que lo forman. El conocimiento de la distribución granulométrica debe favorecer una mejor racionalidad del uso del fundente. La caracterización granulométrica de fundentes mediante parámetros estadísticos es un aspecto a considerar en la obtención, la caracterización y en la homologación de fundentes para un mismo sistema de óxidos con iguales basicidad y actividad química. Por ello, este libro ofrece al lector una metodología de trabajo para la caracterización granulométrica que determina la distribución de probabilidades más próxima a la distribución granulométrica del fundente F1, lo que implica la estimación de las características numéricas asociadas a la distribución empírica a través de sus valores experimentales. El conocimiento de la distribución de probabilidades que explica la distribución granulométrica permite un uso más racional del fundente F1 durante el proceso de soldadura SAW. ····· 1036123660

Transformadas Generalizadas de Esscher

····· lezzter Preis 26.10€ ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
En los últimos tiempos se ha desarrollado una gran variedad de modelos basados en procesos de Lévy que buscan reproducir las propiedades empíricas de los precios de opciones y de los retornos de sus subyacentes. Si bien este objetivo ha sido alcanzado, los mismos no son capaces de explicar de forma satisfactoria la conexión entre la probabilidad histórica que reproduce la dinámica del subyacente y la de riesgo neutral implícita en los precios de opciones. Otra rama de la investigación ha optado por priorizar este nexo. La transformada clásica de Esscher forma parte de la misma, define una probabilidad libre de riesgo equivalente a la histórica y un proceso de riesgo neutral que, al igual que el supuesto para el subyacente, resulta un proceso de Lévy. A pesar de ello, el desajuste con los precios de mercado de las opciones es no despreciable. El núcleo del trabajo consiste en la propuesta de dos generalizaciones paramétricas para la transformada de Esscher que, sin resignar las propiedades antedichas, logre que los precios teóricos de opciones se ajusten de forma razonable a las de mercado. La parte final del libro incluye una ilustración del método aplicado al índice S&P 500. ····· 1036123807

Metodologías de Optimización con Incertidumbre en un Problema Forestal

für 26.10€ kaufen ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
La incertidumbre asociada a la información es un tema importante de asumir al momento de tomar decisiones, ya que puede aumentar el riesgo del negocio y provocar pérdidas considerables relacionadas a malas decisiones. El propósito de este trabajo es estudiar, aplicar y analizar metodologías de optimización que manejan incertidumbre en su planteamiento. Se espera llegar a la conclusión que la metodología de optimización robusta es más tratable, fácil de implementar y entrega resultados tan buenos o mejores que los entregados por la optimización estocástica. Esto se demuestra a través de la implementación de las metodologías a un problema de optimización lineal aplicado a la industria forestal y a la realización de las comparaciones necesarias entre los distintos métodos. ····· 10361136863

Feature Extraction in Regression and Classification with Structured Predictors

····· lezzter Preis 31.78€ ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
Eine typische Aufgabe bei der statistischen Modellierung ist die Selektion von Variablen. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird jedoch nicht nur Variablenselektion sondern vielmehr Feature Extraction näher untersucht. Feature Extraction geht über bloße Variablenselektion hinaus, in dem Sinne, dass nicht einfach Variablen ausgewählt sondern bestimmte Merkmale erfasst werden sollen, die je nach Art der betrachteten Daten unterschiedlich sein können.In dieser Dissertationsschrift werden Variablen mit einer speziellen Struktur betrachtet, wobei diese Größen als Prädiktoren in Regressions- oder Klassifikationsproblemen dienen sollen. Den ersten untersuchten Datentyp stellen hochdimensionale signalartige (metrische) Kovariablen dar. Ein typisches Beispiel für diese Art von Daten sind funktionale Prädiktoren in der Signalregression, die zwar nur an (einer Vielzahl von) einzelnen Messpunkten erfasst werden können, aber dennoch als Realisationen (mehr oder weniger) glatter Kurven angesehen werden sollten. Hier kann Feature Extraction als die ¿Identifikation der relevanten Teile des Signals` definiert werden. Zu diesem Zweck wird in der vorliegenden Arbeit ein Boosting-Verfahren entwickelt, welches auch auf Protein-Massenspektren wie sie in der Proteomik vorkommen angewandt werden kann. Mit Hilfe von Simulationsstudien sowie an Hand realer Daten kann gezeigt werden, dass das vorgestellte Verfahren eine äußerst konkurrenzfähige Alternative zu bestehenden Verfahren darstellt.Kategoriale Kovariablen sind eine weitere hochinteressante Art von speziell strukturierten Prädiktoren. Kategoriale Kovariablen werden in der Regel dummy-kodiert und resultieren folglich in Gruppen von Dummy-Variablen. Haben die betrachteten Größen allerdings ordinales Skalenniveau, wird diese Ordnung der Kategorien bei der Modellierung oftmals ignoriert, oder aber es werden (fälschlicherweise) Methoden angewandt, die eigentlich für Variablen mit metrischem Niveau gedacht sind. In dieser Arbeit werden nun penalisierte Likelihood-Ansätze vorgeschlagen, die ordinales Skalenniveau in den unabhängigen Größen über eine Differenzen-Penalty auf benachbarten Dummy-Koeffizienten berücksichtigen. Neben dem Aspekt der Variablenselektion wird auch die Identifikation relevanter Differenzen zwischen Kategorien sowohl ordinal als auch nominal skalierter Prädiktoren betrachtet und eswerden geeignete L1-Regularisierungstechniken vorgestellt. Die Verfahren werden dabei sowohl aus einem praktischen als auch einem theoretischen Blickwinkel heraus untersucht. Es wird gezeigt, dass die vorgestellten Methoden sinnvoll einsetzbar sind und auch im Vergleich mit alternativen Ansätzen sehr gut abschneiden. Darüber hinaus werden auch kategoriale (potentiell) Effekt-modifizierende Faktoren in Modellen mit variierenden Koeffizienten betrachtet.Zu guter Letzt werden Ansätze zur nonparametrischen Feature Extraction unter Verwendung von Nearest-Neighbor-Verfahren vorgestellt. Das Abschneiden des in diesem Zusammenhang vorgeschlagenen Nearest-Neighbor-Ensembles ist dabei äußerst vielversprechend. ····· 10361192941

Discrete Time Analysis of Multi-Server Queueing Systems in Material Handling and Service

····· lezzter Preis 32.00€ ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
In this doctoral thesis, performance parameters of multi-server queueing systems are estimated under general stochastic assumptions. We present an exact calculation method for the discrete time distribution of the number of customers in the queueing system at the arrival moment of an arbitrary customer. The waiting time distribution and the sojourn time distribution are estimated exactly, as well. For the calculation of the inter departure time distribution, we present an approximation method. ····· 10361164438

Estudio numérico del modelo de Heston

····· lezzter Preis 32.31€ ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
El objetivo principal de este trabajo es hacer una descripción de las soluciones numéricas de este modelo y proponer un esquema numérico alternativo en diferencias finitas explícito que sea positivo, monótono, conservativo, estable, consistente y convergente, que permita resolver numéricamente el modelo de Heston a bajo costo computacional y de fácil implementación. En el capítulo 1 se presentan algunos preliminares del cálculo estocástico, como son el Movimiento Browniano, integrales estocásticas, y la formula de Itô entre otros. En el capítulo 2 realiza la descripción de los modelo de Black-Scholes, Heston y se realiza la deducción de la ecuación en derivadas parciales que representa el precio de una opción en ambos modelos.El capítulo 3 corresponde al Método de Diferencias Finitas, aquí se explican las características del método y describen las fórmulas de aproximación para primeras y segundas derivadas parciales que se usaran en el capitulo 5. En el capítulo 4 se presentan analizan algunas de las soluciones numéricas bajo el esquema en diferencias finitas que se han planteado para resolver el modelo de Heston.Finalmente en el capitulo 6 se presentan resultados experimentales. ····· 1036122807

Discrete Time Analysis of Consolidated Transport Processes

····· lezzter Preis 35.00€ ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
The objective of this work is to develop models for the analysis of consolidated transport processes. With the discrete time queuing models developed for inventory and vehicle consolidation, in particular milkrun systems, a detailed performance evaluation of different design scenarios can be conducted faster than with simulation. Moreover, it is demonstrated how the models can be connected with each other in form of a network analysis, in order to analyze hub-and-spoke networks. ····· 10361164507

Mercados Financieros: Análisis Estadístico y Evidencia Empírica

für 35.10€ kaufen ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
El propósito principal de este estudio lo constituye el análisis estadístico y la correspondiente evidencia empírica de series temporales financieras, indicadores bursátiles agregados, con la finalidad de investigar la posible existencia de no linealidades y dinámica caótica en dichas series. Por otra parte, la información obtenida constituye la base para la modelización y predicción utilizando redes neuronales. Por último, se incluye una comparación de los resultados obtenidos, con los correspondientes a metologías alternativas. ····· 103611399

Incidencia de la Energía Eólica en la red

für 35.10€ kaufen ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
Este trabajo aborda el problema del flujo de cargas probabilístico en sistemas eléctricos con un alto grado de penetración eólica. Con base en los datos de potencias instaladas y del reparto de cargas en el sistema, se calcula el flujo de carga. El objetivo es determinar las líneas que sobrepasan el 75% de su potencia nominal. Esas líneas se escogen como objeto de estudio para analizar la influencia posterior de la aportación eólica. El análisis se aplicará a un sistema eléctrico, el sistema IEEE-RTS96, en el que se consideran dos escenarios de estudio o bloques de comportamiento similares a lo largo de las 24 horas: Escenario 1.- Horas valle. Escenario 2.- Horas punta. A la información de la demanda de los dos escenarios del caso de estudio, se le añade la asignación de la potencia eólica generada, teniendo en cuenta que las predicciones de potencia eólica serán tomadas como las variables de entrada para resolver los flujos de carga probabilísticos. Estas variables son variables aleatorias y continuas debido a las características de la velocidad del viento de la que dependen. Se sustituirá generación convencional por eólica mediante la incorporación de los parques eólicos. ····· 103612474

Modelos condicionales con patrones de pérdidas intermitentes

für 35.10€ kaufen ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
El presente trabajo proporciona una colección de macros elaboradas sobre el sistema SAS para Windows, capaces de ajustar modelos condicionales en presencia de patrones de pérdidas intermitentes para datos recolectados de tipo longitudinal. El ajuste se basa en el supuesto de Mecanismo de Pérdidas Aleatorio o Completamente Aleatorio y en la llamada condición de separabilidad. Se ofrece además una aplicación práctica donde se define y ajusta un modelo del tipo descrito a los datos de un ensayo clínico que evaluó el efecto de un producto cubano en una enfermedad del sistema respiratorio. Se propone un modelo inicial de transición de orden 8, enriquecido con un efecto aleatorio y un error de medición, para los datos del ensayo clínico. Se detectó una alta dependencia del valor actual de la variable primaria, índice de oxigenación, en valores previos alcanzados una hora, tres horas y siete horas antes. El tiempo se distinguió como covariable significativa: puede afirmarse que el índice de oxigenación tiende a elevar sus valores con el paso del tiempo. Esta conclusión implica un mejoramiento gradual del paciente durante las 72 horas de tratamiento. ····· 103612776

Computación Natural

für 35.10€ kaufen ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
A finales de la década de los 90 las investigaciones sobre computación natural apuntaban que muchos de los procesos de los que se producían en el interior de una célula viva se podían entender como un mero mecanismo computacional, en analogía a las máquinas de Turing, en el que se intercambiaba información o se hacían cálculos. Esto incitó a Gheorge Paun, en 1998, a comprobar si realmente un modelo de computación abstracto cuya estructura estuviera basada en la fisiología celular podría ayudar a resolver problemas matemáticos concretos, pregunta que como veremos en este trabajo tuvo respuesta positiva. Esto le llevó a construir una estructura formal que hoy conocemos como P-sistemas. ····· 1036121860

Métodos econométricos para el pronóstico de delitos

····· lezzter Preis 35.10€ ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
El presente estudio, tiene como objetivo probar cuan efectivos pueden ser los modelos multiecuacionales del tipo vectores auto regresivos (VAR) y los modelos de sistemas de ecuaciones, para desarrollar pronósticos de corto plazo de delitos, aplicado a la comuna de Santiago en el período que comprende el primero de enero de 2001 y el 30 de junio de 2004. Se encontró que los modelos apropiados para la formulación de pronósticos difieren, dependiendo del sector que se esté tratando. Los errores de pronósticos para las series diarias son cercanos al 27 %. Similares a los que se han obtenido en estudios para otros países como Inglaterra y Estados Unidos. ····· 1036122291

Aplicación de Coeficientes de Sendero en Cultivos de Ajipa

····· lezzter Preis 35.10€ ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
El presente libro consigue determinar variables indicadoras relevantes para el rendimiento de raíces y vainas en el cultivo de ajipa, para tal fin se utilizó una herramienta matemática estadística: el análisis de coeficientes de sendero que permite conocer el grado de relación entre un conjunto de variables dependientes e independientes. También se usó el análisis de regresión múltiple y correlación para eliminar variables duplicadas y que no fueron significantes a un nivel de 0.05 y asimismo, tener mayor soporte en las conclusiones. El método de análisis de coeficientes de sendero fue aplicado en el área agronómica en cultivos de ajipa (pachiryzus ahipa), puesto que esta planta tiene un extraordinario potencial de alto valor nutricional sin embargo tiene un bajo rendimiento y se quiere incrementarlo a través del mejoramiento genético, dotando a los investigadores de pautas necesarias para lograr un elevado rendimiento. Se han obtenido por tanto, resultados que, en efecto, incrementan el rendimiento de raíces y vainas y éstos se encuentran en función de las variables empleadas en la presente investigación. ····· 1036123338

Estimación no paramétrica de funciones de varianza generalizada

····· lezzter Preis 35.10€ ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
En este libro se presentan los resultados de una investigación basada en modelos de regresión no paramétricos como un método alternativo para la estimación de varianza en muestreo de poblaciones finitas. Se pretende analizar la factibilidad de introducir la metodología de regresión no paramétrica en la determinación de Funciones de Varianza Generalizada utilizando la información pública del INEGI para el Censo del 2000 esto con la finalidad de lograr mejores aproximaciones y estimaciones más estables de la varianza. ····· 1036123586

Modelo General de Cox:

····· lezzter Preis 35.10€ ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
Esta investigación propone una metodología innovadora debido a que utiliza conjuntamente la teoría estadística y los constructos teóricos de la inteligencia artificial, específicamente aquellos conceptos relacionados con la arquitectura y funcionamiento de la neurona neo difusa para obtener estimaciones de los parámetros basados en el modelo de regresión de Cox. Esta Metodología Alternativa, y por tanto interdisciplinaria, resulta provechosa ya que permite la discretización de las variables en términos de funciones de pertenencia propuestas por la lógica difusa, de tal forma que la membresía de un elemento es valorada en función de un rango, y no en términos absolutos, como se propone en las metodologías que se utilizan frecuentemente en la ciencia estadística. A partir de la metodología que se propone en esta investigación, el tiempo de vida de un fenómeno cualquiera se podrá predecir y modelar la función de riesgo de falla del componente estudiado con una mayor exactitud. ····· 1036124174

Construcción de Procesos Markovianos de Salto

für 35.10€ kaufen ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
El estudio de lo Procesos Markovianos de Salto ocupa un lugar relevante en la teoría de los Procesos Estocásticos, y donde el estudio de la existencia de tales procesos se hace a través de una óptica constructivista en la que la literatura hace escasa referencia. El objeto de este trabajo es el de presentar un estudio minucioso de la construcción que hacen algunos autotes como Gikhman, Ethier-Kurtz, Stoock y otros, principalmente en que el proceso construido sea en efecto, de Markov. El aporte de este trabajo es el de presentar una prueba completa y a detalle de tal propiedad sin suponer la existencia de una Cadena de Markov con una cierta distribución, sino que la construimos siguiendo algunas ideas bastante sencillas, lo que por otra parte nos permite tratar con algunos enfoques en el estudio de la recurrencia y trnsitoriedad de una Cadena de Markov, como la relación que guardan estas con la la teoría de funciones armónicas. ····· 1036189494

Variables aleatorias y distribuciones de probabilidad

für 35.10€ kaufen ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
Este libro contiene los temas iniciales que se imparten en los cursos de Estadística, orientados al uso de esta herramienta en las distintas disciplinas de la ingeniería. El primer capítulo presenta una introducción al cálculo de probabilidad. Los siguientes capítulos contienen una exposición de las variables aleatorias y distribuciones de probabilidades discretas y continuas, así como sus aplicaciones, respectivamente. Para mostrar las utilizaciones computacionales en la solución de problemas y en el análisis de datos se muestran los resultados del paquete estadístico Statgraphics, cuando se utiliza.Cada capítulo muestra los objetivos que se persiguen para que el estudiante sea capaz de identificar los logros al concluirlo. Además, contiene ejercicios resueltos con datos reales, relacionados con el marco teórico. También incluye, en primer lugar, un ejercicio de autoevaluación, diseñado para proporcionar a los estudiantes la oportunidad de resolver problemas semejantes a los ejemplos y para reforzar la comprensión del capítulo respectivo y, en segundo lugar, ejercicios propuestos con sus métodos de solución y repuestas a final del libro. ····· 1036189852

Modelo estocástico en la transmisión del dengue con topología de redes

für 35.10€ kaufen ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
La mayoría de los modelos matemáticos en epidemiología desconocen la estructura de interacción entre los individuos de una población. Es común asumir que éstos se mezclan homogéneamente, por lo cual todos los individuos susceptibles tienen el mismo riesgo de adquirir una infección. Este supuesto se ha considerado injustificado, porque las interacciones entre los individuos son más limitadas. En este estudio se analizó la velocidad de transmisión de la enfermedad del dengue, en una población con una estructura de interacción particular, donde se incluyeron dos factores: uno, en el que los individuos interactúan entre sí dentro de las familias, y otro en el que algunos de los individuos de estas, comparten lugares en común. Este último elemento equivale a compartir espacios esporádicamente, como ocurre comúnmente en escuelas, sitios de trabajo, parques, cines, etc., identificados como sitios de reunión. Para conocer su efecto, se estudió el tamaño de la epidemia mediante simulaciones estocásticas de epidemias del tipo Susceptible Infectado Removido. El estudio demostró que los sitios de reunión y el tamaño de las familias, influyeron en el tamaño final de la epidemia del dengue. ····· 1036190128

Proceso de Cox

für 35.10€ kaufen ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
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Modelación y Segmentación de Imágenes por Procesos Autorregresivos

für 35.10€ kaufen ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
Trabajo de tesis presentado en cumplimiento parcial de los requisitos para optar al grado de Doctor en Ciencias Matemáticas en la Facultad de Ciencias Físico-Matemáticas y Naturales de la Universidad Nacional de San Luis (UNSL), Argentina.En el trabajo de Tesis se desarrolla una metodología que, basada en un enfoque bayesiano, permite estimar bordes en imágenes de Radar de Abertura Sintética (SAR) usando modelos autorregresivos 2-D con umbrales. Se parte de una imagen SAR con dos tipos de cobertura que sigue un modelo multiplicativo, el cual puede expresarse como uno aditivo, aplicando logaritmo. Se supone que la imagen así obtenida sigue un modelo autorregresivo 2-D con un umbral, el cual permite detectar bordes en la imagen, y que se estima desde un enfoque bayesiano. Se muestra la bondad de la metodología propuesta con un estudio de simulación. ····· 10361137061

Introducción a la Inferencia Estadística Bayesiana

für 35.10€ kaufen ···· Rheinberg-Buch.de - Bücher, eBooks, DVD & Blu-ray
Éste trabajo está dirigido a aquella persona que inicia sus conocimientos en Estadística Bayesiana relacionado al campo de la inferencia. Por tanto, empezamos con un panorama general de la estadística Bayesiana, donde además mostramos una pequeña reseña histórica de la misma, las ventajas y desventajas, conceptos básicos y la enseñanza de la estadística Bayesiana. Luego nos enfocamos a la parte teórica de la estadística Bayesiana, es decir, elementos y análisis de la misma. La parte más esencial del texto consiste en el estudio de la inferencia, más precisamente en la estimación de los parámetros poblacionales. En ese sentido, es que no sólo damos la parte teórica de la inferencia, sino que realizamos un estudio comparativo completo sobre la estimación de la proporción a favor de la Nueva Constitución Política del Estado en Cochabamba-Bolivia. ····· 10361137781

Estudio del proceso de inercia en modelos de función de transferencia

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El proceso de inercia en los modelos de función de transferencia ha sido modelizado normalmente mediante la metodología ARIMA de Series Temporales introducida por Box y Jenkins. En esta obra se desarrollan otras alternativas a la modelización clásica, permitiendo así optimizar su capacidad predictiva y formular modelos más generales. El tratamiento que se introduce está basado en la descomposición del proceso de inercia en términos de sus componentes principales, tanto desde un punto de vista discreto como funcional consiguiendo con este planteamiento una mayor precisión del modelo predictivo final. Se presentan diferentes aplicaciones de la metodología propuesta no sólo en el ámbito de la Economía, donde es habitual la aplicación de los modelos de función de transferencia, sino también en los campos de la Psicología y el Medio Ambiente. ····· 10361137794

Call Center Staffing and Shift Optimization

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Inbound call center problems need decisions in four main areas the number of incoming calls, necessary number of agents to handle these calls, shift starting times for the operations and the number of agents to be allocated to each shift. Call center models mainly cover these areas seperately. This study approaches to the problem with an integrated Markovian approximation, heuristic supported simulation and optimization model. Incoming demand data is adapted from a private Turkish Bank and an application of the model is conducted. Moreover, probabilistic lunch breaks are introduced to the optimization part of the model. Finally, the model can be used as an easy decision support tool for the call center managers. ····· 10361372

Theory of Statistics

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These lecture notes are organized into six modules. Module one is about Distribution Theory, module two is on the Joint Probability Distributions and module three covers Exact Sampling Distributions. The lecture notes proceed with module four whereby the Bivariate Normal Distribution is presented followed by module five on Inferential Statistics. The lecture notes completes with module six on Non Parametric Hypothesis Testing. The Author is of the opinion that, a user to these lecture notes must have accessed any book in elementary statistics and at least has a strong background in advanced mathematics, otherwise, he/she may find it very difficult to digest the materials included. It is my hope that, students in statistics will enjoy following the notes as supplementary materials to what they are actually going to get during lecture contacts in their classes. ····· 10361607

Modelo metaheurístico aplicado al problema de enrutamiento

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La presente investigación trata sobre la creación y aplicación de una Metodología para solucionar problemas resolubles de manera determinista, mediante algoritmos polinómicos y en un tiempo polinomial, como puede ser, por ejemplo, la resolución de ecuaciones, la realización de sumas, productos, etc., pudiendo acortar el tiempo de resolución, más o menos largo, de una manera aceptable. Se presenta un nuevo algoritmo, perteneciente a la clase de metaheurística, para la construcción de las rutas que efectúan los vehículos cisternas. ····· 103612110

Procedimiento de Muestreo y Reconstrucción

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El problema de reconstrucción de procesos Gaussianos con jitter empezó a investigarse en los años sesentas, pero el interés acerca de este problema ha aumentado en los últimos años debido al gran auge que tienen los medios de comunicación digitales. El jitter se presenta como la variación del tiempo de muestreo de la información y su consideración es importante debido a que puede generar efectos indeseables y pérdida de datos. La principal característica de este trabajo está en considerar la mayor cantidad de parámetros que describan al jitter y a los procesos Gaussianos. Su descripción está basada en la teoría estadística de las comunicaciones, principalmente en el campo de los procesos estocásticos. Con los resultados de este estudio es posible describir el procedimiento de muestreo y reconstrucción (PMR) de diferentes tipos de procesos Gaussianos y diferentes tipos de jitter y calcular las funciones de error de reconstrucción óptimas y las funciones básicas de cada muestra en todo el dominio del tiempo. Este análisis es principalmente útil para estudiantes y profesores de Ingeniería en Telecomunicaciones. ····· 103613050

Modeling the Queuing Problem in Kibaha Weighbridge in Tanzania

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the standard models of queuing theory of operations research is concerning with allocation of resources.The operation research models like queuing theory,linear programming dynamic programming and inventory was developed after the success in the second World War where the military has to allocate resources to various military operations and to the activities within each operations in an effective manner. These models are still applicable in the field of operational research.the standard theory of queuing are applicable everywhere when the facilities required to provide service are inefficient.Kibaha weighbridge in Tanzania is among the place where the facilities available cannot accommodate the vehicles requiring the service of weighing.The standard models of queuing theory are proposed to be used in the this place to reduce the congestion especially during the peak hours. ····· 103613227

Single Channel Speech Enhancement

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Speech is an elementary source of human interaction. The quality and intelligibility of speech signals during communication are generally degraded by the surrounding noise. Corrupted speech signals need therefore to be enhanced to improve quality and intelligibility. This book focuses on a single channel speech enhancement technique that performs noise reduction by spectral subtraction based on minimum statistics. Minimum statistics means that the power spectrum of the non-stationary noise signal is estimated by finding the minimum values of a smoothed power spectrum of the noisy speech signal and, thus, circumvents the speech activity detection problem. The performance of the spectral subtraction method is evaluated using single channel speech data and for a wide range of noise types with various noise levels. This evaluation is used in order to find optimum method parameter values, thereby improving this algorithm to make it more appropriate for speech communication purposes. This book is essential for those people who want to learn about speech enhancement in a single channel, and the analysis of this book must be useful for professionals in the field of speech communication. ····· 103613492

Object Detection In Image Using Particle Swarm Optimization

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Cross-correlation and related techniques have dominated the Image processing field since the early fifties. Conventional template matching algorithm based on cross-correlation requires complex calculation and large time for object detection, which makes difficult to use them in real time applications. The shortcomings of this class of image matching methods have caused a slow-down in the development of operational automated correlation systems. In the proposed book particle swarm optimization & its variants based algorithm is used for detection of object in image. Implementation of this algorithm reduces the time required for object detection than conventional template matching algorithm. Algorithm can detect object in less number of iteration & hence less time & energy than the complexity of conventional template matching. This feature makes the method capable for real time implementation. ····· 103613822

Participation of women in decision making in households

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This study was conducted to address women s participation in decision making on household income and expenditure items in Morogoro Rural District. The study identified major households income sources and expenditure items.The descriptive analysis shows that 41.7% of women participate in decision making while the rest 58.3% did not participate. Results from binary logistic regression on whether respondents participated in decision making or not revealed that, respondents with primary education (Odds Ratio (OR)=0.419), polygamy type of marital union (OR=2.345) and respondents with average daily income 0.05. Also the results from Multinomial Analysis shows that wives with average daily income of 4,000 Tshs who make decision with their husbands, as well as wives who make their own decision were less likely to decide on households major expenditure items compared to wives whose households decision is made by husband only. ····· 1036118438

Characterization and identification of probability distributions

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This book introduces three new criteria (a) moment relations, (b) moment ratios and (c) ratios of the coefficients of the recurrence relations to characterize and indentify probability distributions. In general moment relations criteria are effective but there are some special situations, where the moment relations of two or more suspected distributions are same or one particular moment function takes same value for two or more distributions. In such a situation two moment ratios as extra criteria are proposed for deciding among them. This book also discussed the identification of a distribution by using the ratios of the coefficients of the recurrence relations obtained from its generating function. The significant contribution of this research is to introduce a new special class of exponential family of distributions named transformed Chi-square family . Explicit expressions for the MVUE with MV of a function of the parameter of this family are given. The critical region and the power function for various tests of hypotheses for the parameter of this family are also obtained. An identification procedure with probability of correct identification is discussed in detail. ····· 1036118591

Learning Bayesian Networks From Timed Data

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Learning a Bayesian Network from timed data without prior knowledge to the dynamic process that generated the data is the main subject of this document. The proposed algorithm, called Tom4BN, is based on an adequate representation of a set of sequences of timed observations and uses the BJ-Measure, an information based measure adapted to timed data to evaluates the quantity of information flowing along an edge. This algorithm and this measure have been designed in the framework of the TOM4L process (Timed Observation Mining for Learning process, Tom4L) that is based on Le Goc`s Theory of the Timed Observations (2006). This theory is a mathematical framework that integrates and extends Shannon`s Theory of Communication, Poisson`s and Markov`s Theories, and the Logical Theory of Model Based Diagnosis. The TOT is the first and the unique mathematical theory that is the base of both a Knowledge Engineering Methodology (Tom4D, Timed Observation Modeling for Diagnosis) and the Timed Data Mining process (Tom4L). The work of this algorithm is presented with a toy example (a simple car diagnosis) and a real world industrial application. ····· 1036118730

Distribution of mean of correlation coefficients

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Correlation has significance in all sciences. Various attempts have been made over two centuries by many authors to explore its usefulness. In this research an attempt has been made to derive a distribution of the mean of k-independent sample correlation coefficients each of which is based on n pairs of observations. This distribution has been developed by expanding the rth power of the modified Bessel function by using the Taylor series. The contribution of this research is to derive, 1) the distribution of mean of two independent sample correlation coefficients and their weighted means, 2) the distribution of mean of k-independent samples correlation coefficients 3) various properties of the distribution of mean of two and k- independent sample correlation coefficients. ····· 1036119506

Reliability and its Quantitative Measures

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Inspired by the domain of demography, reliability theory adopted and adapted the main indicator used there, namely the rate of mortality which is in fact the ratio between the number of deceased persons at the time and the number of survivors at the same moment. In a reliability framework, the mortality rate became hazard or failure rate where the persons (living beings) are replaced by objects (components, subassemblies and systems). The theory of reliability deals with all aspects of this process of failure, trying to construct formal or mathematical models for this random phenomenon. In a broader sense, a failure may be defined as an incident or a situation /condition that causes for a product a process or a service an undesired status when the intended purposes are not performed safely, secure and cost-effectively. ····· 1036120075

Econometric Study of Forecasting Oil Stock Prices

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This research study is aimed at providing some answers relating to stock market investment for the investors and educators in understanding the dynamics of share prices at firm level specific to oil and gas industry. In Indian context much has to be done in this direction to provide grass roots of fundamentals of investing in stocks. Though the percentage of investors are less in population size still the investors don t take decisions on their own because of lack of knowledge, lack of fundamentals of investing, and are normally approach to stock broking companies for better selection of their portfolios. This empirical study without any doubt will contribute to understand the macroeconomic indicators and their performance in related to stock market specific to oil and gas industry. Applications of various forecasting methodologies to this type of study will yield multiple answers to the stock market investors. The study results confirm the affect of macroeconomic factors over the oil stock prices at varying levels. ····· 1036120561

Small Area Estimation in Longitudinal Surveys

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Surveys dealing with multiple observations spread over time are defined as longitudinal surveys. When one is concerned about estimates of population sub-groups in longitudinal surveys, particularly the pattern of changes at individual level as well as aggregate level over time, the techniques of small areas estimation (SAE) can possibly be employed to achieve the above goal. In this book, it has been attempted to propose methodology for estimation of population parameters in longitudinal surveys with special reference to small area and study the temporal patterns of changes in population parameters. Direct, synthetic and composite estimators have been proposed to estimate the population mean of small area for specific points of time. It also provides detail of mean square errors (MSE) of the proposed estimator. The relative efficiencies of the proposed estimators are illustrated with an empirical data collected through surveys. ····· 1036124446

Stochastic Modelling Using Markov Chains

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Modeling physical and natural phenomenon/process has been a necessity for the human beings. Initially mathematical models were used for modelling various natural phenomenon. Later, after realising the presence of uncontrollable errors, they tried to model it using the concept of probability. Modelling problems became complicated when there is dependence between these errors. Markov chains are being used widely to model various problems where there is dependence between the observations. In this monograph, some applications of the Markov chains in reliability modelling, quality assurance and distribution theory are considered. Here stochastic ageing is modeled using the Cox regression model and the Phase-Type distributions. This book can inspire those who have a basic knowledge about Markov Chains. ····· 1036124498

Two-Type Step-Wise Group Screening Designs With Errors In Observations

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The problem of detection of defective factors in a large population consisting of defective and non-defective factors has been tackled in various ways. One such an approach is Two-type Step-wise Group Screening Designs with Errors in Observations.In the first step of this design we assume all factors have equal prior probability of being defective and obtain an expression for the expected number of runs required to carry out the whole experiment.The expression obtained is used to generate some tables using numerical approximation. In the second step of the design we assume the factors have a different prior probability of being defective and an expression for the expected number of runs required to analyze the whole experiment is obtained. The expression obtained is used to generate tables again using numerical method.The tables are used to evaluate the efficiency of the design. ····· 1036125734

Comparison of GLM, GEE and GLMM

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Next to continuous outcomes, counts, binary and binomial outcomes take a prominent place in applied modeling and the corresponding methodological literature. It is common to place such models within the generalized linear modeling (GLM) framework. One of the main reasons for extending this family is the accommodation of hierarchical structure in the data, stemming from clustering in the data which, in turn, may result from repeatedly measuring the outcome, for various members of the same family. The correlation resulting from the clustering is often accommodated through the inclusion of random subject-specific effects. Though not always, one conventionally assumes such random effects to be normally distributed. The repeated structure can be also accommodated by allowing a working correlation structure which leads to Generalized estimation equations. This study starts from the broad class of generalized linear models, accommodating clustering through a set of subject specific random effects. The methodology is applied to a longitudinal binary data from the south western Infants Longitudinal Growth Study. ····· 1036186756

Stochastic modelling of the maintenance effect on systems reliability

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This book deals to stochastic modelling and the parametric estimation of the maintenance efficiency for industrial systems in degradation. The assessing criterion of the maintenance efficiency is supported with the failure intensity in the bath-tub form. The study is devoted to the reformulation of the Brown-Proschan model, and that of models called arithmetic reduction of intensity and age. Relevant results relating to the theoretical properties of the maintenance efficiency estimators, based on the simulation method, allow to better understand the system behaviour. Ultimately, a method assessing of the efficiency relating to the total process of corrective and preventive maintenances is developed and illustrated on a basis of real data issued from industry. ····· 1036187186

Optimal Designs

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This book covers the construction of optimal experimental designs for Beta regression models using two predictors without interaction term. D-criterion is used as basis of optimality. Keeping in view the analytical complexity of the problem First Order Exchange Algorithm has been used to obtain locally optimal designs. These designs have been constructed under different conditions of parameter values, like positive, negative and mixture of positive and negative values. Robustness of optimal designs under parameter misspecification has also been investigated and designs have been compared with commonly used equi-weighted designs in order to study the gain in efficiency. Use of the Efficient Rounding Procedure for obtaining exact designs by rounding off the design weights has been discussed and demonstrated through examples. The optimal designs for a variety of parameter settings are provided in appendices. These designs may be used in real life situations where appropriate. ····· 1036187455

Partial Order on Classical and Quantum States

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In this work we extend the work done by Bob Coecke and Keye Martin in their paper `Partial Order on Classical States and Quantum States (2003)`. We review basic notions involving elementary domain theory, the set of probability measures on a finite set {a1, a2, ..., an}, which we identify with the standard (n-1)-simplex n and Shannon Entropy. We consider partial orders on n, which have the Entropy Reversal Property (ERP) : elements lower in the order have higher (Shannon) entropy or equivalently less information . The ERP property is important because of its applications in quantum information theory. We define a new partial order on n, called Stochastic Order , using the well-known concept of majorization order and show that it has the ERP property and is also a continuous domain. In contrast, the bayesian order on n defined by Coecke and Martin has the ERP property but is not continuous. ····· 1036187539

Financial mathematics

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This book is about the estimation of market volatility (or variance of returns of an asset) is a crucial issue in modern applied finance. The measure of volatility and good forecasts of future volatility are crucial for implementation, evaluation of asset and derivative pricing of asset. In particular, volatility has been used in financial markets in assessments of risk associated with short-term fluctuations in financial time-series. Volatility has a key role to play in the determination of a risk and in the valuation of options and other derivative securities. Exercises and examples are provided to make understanding of the book easier. Other models are also included to act as prerequisite knowledge to the developed models herein. ····· 1036187578

Advanced applied statistics

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This book is about modeling of infectious diseases which are normally recurrent. The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pandemic presents a massive challenge to the control of recurrent diseases like tuberculosis (TB) at all levels. Tuberculosis is also one of the most common causes of morbidity and one of the leading causes of mortality in people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). In this book, various mathematical models that capture the role played by HIV/AIDS in accelerating the infection and hence spread of Tuberculosis. We looked at TB progression among people with HIV and those without. The model is formulated for TB/HIV negative individuals as well as for TB/HIV positive people. The model was developed using the first order partial differential Mackendrick-Von Foster equation. Further, different epidemiological techniques to estimate parameters in the model are surveyed. These parameters were estimated through extraction of relevant information from data available in other literature. Simulation was done using Matlab and Graphs produced for easy understanding of the text. ····· 1036187617

A Multivariate Time Series Analysis of Agrometeorological Data

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Climate change affects all economic sectors to some degree, but the agricultural sector is perhaps the most sensitive and vulnerable. Melkassa, which is located in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, is one of the areas where sorghum is widely grown. The localized temporal rainfall and temperature variation during cropping season induces an important challenge to sorghum production and in turn to food security. The effect of rainfall and temperature variability on sorghum yield over long period of time is studied using Multivariate time series analysis that is Vector Auto Regressive. The book is useful for researchers, academicians and students. ····· 1036187709

Time to Attain Threshold Level Through Multisource of HIV Transmission

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It has been widely recognized that the amount of people infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has been increasing in recent years, especially in developing countries.The important characteristic of the threshold for a person is the time to attain the break down point. A person affected having three sources two Exponential and one Erlang distribution with independent thresholds is considered, the Expected time and variance of the time to cross the threshold are obtained using the shock model and cumulative damage process in the field of Stochastic Process.The assumptions made are somewhat artificial, but are made because of lack of detailed real-world information.To illustrate the method described in this paper, some limited simulation results are discussed. This Study will be Useful for Bio-Statistics research Scholar. ····· 1036188156

Pricing options using multifactor stochastic volatility models

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Accurate option pricing has been a main concern for financial quantitative practitioners and academics since the introduction of such instruments. The Black and Scholes option pricing formula is a cornerstone in the derivatives world nonetheless it is based on a set of unrealistic assumptions and does not explain volatility patterns. Pricing options using multifactor stochastic volatility models illustrates step by step why volatility has to be considered a variable that moves in a random fashion and why multifactor stochastic volatility models have become the most popular among practitioners. The book also presents a practical framework for building multifactor stochastic volatility models. Matlab codes are provided in the appendix. ····· 1036188200

Qualitative Regression Models

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This book caters to the needs of the students of Undergraduate, Postgraduate and Scholars of Statistics through effective formulation of regression models for qualitative variables. This comprehensive text introduces readers to the theory and application of Regression Models For Qualitative Variables . The neat free-body diagrams are presented. The problem is solved systematically using `dummy variable approach` to make the procedure clear. The chapters I to IV includes thorough grounding in the related concepts. The last chapter presents the summary and conclusions. In addition, the results and discussions designed to aid further understanding of the subject. ····· 1036188246

Modelación de Demanda Incorporando Umbrales de Percepción y Valoración

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A través del texto se formulan y desarrollan modelos de demanda incorporando umbrales de percepción y valoración de atributos en los procesos de elección discreta, dentro del marco de la teoría de utilidad aleatoria. Los umbrales son estudiados básicamente en tres contextos: 1.Como inercia o resistencia al cambio, considerando que el comportamiento de los individuos podía estar caracterizado por la formación de hábitos y costumbres que generan, como consecuencia, oposición a cambios. 2.Como un cambio perceptible , bajo la hipótesis que un cambio en el valor de un atributo por debajo de cierto umbral no produce una reacción en el individuo es decir, no afecta su utilidad personal. 3.Como mecanismo de aceptación o rechazo de una alternativa, considerando que la presencia de umbrales en los atributos podía actuar como un criterio explícito para determinar el conjunto de elecciones factibles esto es, si el umbral de algún atributo para una determinada alternativa es sobrepasado, dicha opción es rechazada. Los modelos utilizados tienen un amplio rango de aplicación en áreas como mercadeo, economía, logística y transporte. ····· 1036189872

Algoritmos genéticos en la discriminación

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En este documento se presenta una simulación del Algoritmo Genético para la estimación de parámetros de la función discriminante en el problema de discriminación en dos poblaciones. Para ello, se empleó la base de datos con dos especies de flores de iris, a la que se le aplicó remuestreo para generar n muestras, de las cuales se obtuvo el análisis discriminante de Fisher y así obtener n funciones discriminantes que forman la población inicial. Después se usó la técnica de Algoritmos Genéticos, ésta emplea un método de selección (método de la ruleta), y la aplicación de operadores genéticos (cruce aritmético, mutaciones uniforme y normal) lo que permitió realizar la búsqueda de las mejores funciones con el mínimo error de clasificación y a través de validación cruzada se observa cuales funciones clasifican y discriminan mejor con respecto a las obtenidas por el método tradicional. ····· 1036190047

Estadística inferencial

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Con el objetivo de evaluar la incidencia de la variación de la dureza total del agua sobre los índices morfofisiológicos, fecundidad y gametogénesis de Oreochromis niloticus en condiciones de cautiverio, se determinaron cuatro tratamientos de dureza total del agua incluyendo un tratamiento control, cada uno con seis réplicas conformadas por 14 individuos, para un total de 282 ejemplares analizados. Se concluye que el proceso reproductivo de la especie en estudio puede ser limitado por concentraciones elevadas de dureza total del agua. ····· 1036190514

An Essay in the Probability Theory

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An increased awareness of probability and statistics can only improve society and its ability to assess situations and make rational decisions. How do we begin to remedy this situation around the world We can start by devoting far more time in grade, middle, high school and university math classes, in order to teach students about this important subject and the implications that it can have on their everyday lives, understanding of society, and ability to make wise financial decisions. ····· 1036191690

Markov Chain for An Indicator Passing Through Cardio-Vascular System

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Some problems in estimation of the state of the cardio-vascular system (CVS) cannot be solved without mathematics modeling. One example would be how to separate the first pass of an indicator from the recirculation. This separation is needed in order to estimate the flow pumped by the heart during a unit of time. Another example would be to determine the cause that it takes an indicator such a long time to mix within the CVS. It is critical to know this in order to interpret the value of blood volumes. These and others problems are solved in this manuscript by viewing the CVS as an oriented closed graph and blood flow as described by the Markov matrix. A mathematical model reveals that, in the microcirculation, there are a fraction of closed microvessels that are in random exchange with open microvessels. This mechanism is responsible for the delayed mixing of an indicator, the slow removal of the metabolic waste products (including the delay in nitrogen removal in divers) and could thus be a regulator of O2 delivery to the tissues. This manuscript is, therefore, of interest to and can be used by engineers, physicists, and mathematicians who work with medical and biological data ····· 1036192192

Contributions to Design of Experiments

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A new method of constructing a family of resolvable Balanced Incomplete Block designs is given. The design has a hierarchical structure and the sub designs are well known incomplete block designs with good statistical properties. Such designs are useful in industrial applications where blocks are run sequentially. The blocks of the design can be arranged in a row-column array which provides additional measure of classification. Some new properties of Group Divisible designs are given along with some properties of Balanced Block Design. Balanced Block designs with nested rows and columns are introduced. A specialized case of Generalized Group divisible design is discussed. The non-existence theorems and some new methods of construction are given. The analysis of such designs is also given. A new product of matrices called Generalized Kronecker Product is introduced and the Hasse-Minkowski invariant of the matrices is obtained. The results are obtained to construct some useful designs. Block Structure properties of Equiblocksized Equireplicated Connected Designs are discussed. A-efficiency of such designs is also obtained. ····· 1036192573

Asymtotic Matrix Methods

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The exact distributions of multivariate statistics used for the inference in multivariate analysis are usually not known or quite difficult to handle. The topic of this book belongs to the area of approximation of unknown distributions through classical distributions and to the related estimation problems. The methods used here are based on concepts of matrix algebra like the Kronecker product, the vec-operator and the matrix derivative. The multivariate normal distribution and the class of elliptical distributions are examined. The asymptotic variance of the sample correlation coefficient is calculated using approximate linearization. Some applications of the asymptotic distribution of the sample correlation coefficient are considered for populations with different distributions. The main term of the bias of the shape parameter of the asymmetric normal distribution and the Läuter`s F-statistic was found using the Taylor expansion. Simulation experiments are described and the results of the simulation study are presented beside derivation of theoretical results. ····· 1036192642

Reverse Auction Bidding

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The purpose of this research work is to review the data collected by van Vleet, in the first case study, to establish analysis techniques and algorithms that can be incorporated into the SQL database as queries for future studies.van Vleet noted in 2004 that In order to accurately assess the implications of reverse auctions, it was essential to know and understand the behaviours of those who engage in the bidding process. Without a method of evaluating the process, it is impossible to clearly understand whether RAB is a success or not. Therefore, by creating a simulation or model of an RAB, this research was able to collect and analyze substantial data which will contribute to the further understanding of the implications that RAB will have on the construction industry. This study reviews the data from van Vleet s study to provide guidance in the development of tools to analyze subsequent case studies using the SQL database developed for Gregory s study in 2006. ····· 1036199349

Quality of life of Employees in Flori-culture Industry

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It may be needed to have different studies on the recently boomed flower industry specifically with issues concerning the employees and their employment status,the quality of life and well-being, new investment directions and economic impacts. With the significant growth in the Flori-culture industry, it is important to undertake a study like this to gauge the impact the industry has had and assess whether increased employment and expansion of the Flori-culture industry is having a positive impact on the lives of farm employees (and their families) and the development of the communities around the farms. In this study, a stratified random sampling method was employed to select a representative employees from The Herberg Rose Ethiopia and Multivariate statistical method is used in the Analysis. Moreover the finding of this work will provide valuable information to all concerned bodies specifically stakeholders associated with Flori-culture industry about the different factors influencing the quality of life of employees, the working environment and productivity in the sector. ····· 1036199394

Inferences Using Progressive Censoring

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Censored sampling arises in a life testing experiment whenever the experimenter does not observe the failure times of all items placed on a life test. Progressive censoring scheme is useful in both industrial life testing applications and clinical settings it allows the removal of surviving experimental units before the termination of the test. In this book, we obtain the maximum likelihood, and Bayes estimations for the parameter of the Burr-X model as well as the binomial parameter, based on progressive first-failure censoring with binomial removals. Bayes estimators under symmetric and asymmetric loss functions are obtained. Three special cases from this censoring scheme have been considered. Farther, we discuss the problem of predicting future record values and ordinary order statistics from Burr-X model based on progressively type-II censored with random removals, were the number of units removed at each failure time has a discrete binomial distribution. We use the Bayes procedure to derive both point and interval prediction. The maximum likelihood prediction both point and interval using `plug-in` procedure for future record values and ordinary order statistics are derived. ····· 1036199545

Understanding the Poisson Log-Bilinear Regression Approach

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Mortality tables play a very important role in planning for health care systems and in computing life insurance premiums. For the past few decades, there has been an increase in the number of studies about estimating and forecasting mortality tables as a response to mortality improvements. In the early 1990 s, the Lee-Carter model was developed and has been widely used for studies on mortality rate and has been subjected to some modifications for improvements. This paper utilized one of these modifications, which was proposed by Brouhns, et.al. (2002). The number of deaths, a count random variable, is said to be well-suited to the Poisson distribution. Thus, this makes the Poisson log-bilinear regression model appropriate in modeling and forecasting mortality. This book aims to be able to fit the Poisson log-bilinear model to the number of deaths for some northern European countries. A maximum likelihood estimation technique is used to estimate the parameters of the model with the aid of LEM program and SAS. A chi-squared goodness of fit test was performed to test significance and usability of model. Lastly, the deviance residuals for the estimated number of deaths were taken. ····· 1036199917

Road Accident Analysis Factors

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Road accidents are increasing every day and especially in Christmas, summer holidays or weekends. Lots of people lose their lives on the roads and it is very difficult to resolve this problem which affects almost to the whole world. Not only the people can die, they can be injury and don t get to recover of their wounds in all their lives. There are several causes of road accidents and I m going to mention some of them that I think they are the main causes: don t respect the speed limit, drive drunk, drive many hours without rest, don t put attention at the road, don t be patient, bad conditions of roads, bad weather (snow, flog, rain, ), and there are more but I think that these are the most important. Firstly if we want to solve this problem, we have to realize that to drive is not a play. We manage a machine very dangerous that it could kill anybody and there laws that we have to carry out. Everybody like to buy a big car that it can run a high speed but we have to realize that we must respect the speed limits because the fact that we have a good car don t give us the right to drive at the speed that we would like to drive. ····· 10361100411

Preprocessing of spectral images for Independent Component Analysis

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The multispectral images of human skins, obtained in the Color laboratory of University of Joensuu, were studied in the project. The project offers the preprocessing of the spectral images of skin for their further research using Independent Component Analysis. Retrieving of mixture vectors is important part of Independent Component Analysis. There two methods were implemented in the project, and ICA_analysis_GUI program, realizing these algorithms in real life was developed. Also different spectral images of human skin were analyzed during the work on the project. The analysis spectral images of skin using the ICA method is very interesting and important topic to research. Developing of the problem also gives opportunities for better medical research and diagnostics. ····· 10361100829

Application of Queuing Theory in Hospitals

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Queuing is a common occurrence in our daily life. People queue to be served in banks,workshops,bus stops, motor parks e.t.c.Apart from man-hours lost to queuing per day,it also leads to break down of law and order in situations where people try to jump queues.Hospitals are establishments where queuing is common.Cases have been witnessed where out-patients,while waiting,develop complications which can lead to death if quick medication is not provided.It happens to patients of Asthma,Heart disease,convulsion e.t.c.It is therefore necessary to evaluate the waiting times of out-patients with a view to reducing it to the minimum.This work analyzed the waiting time of out-patients at University of Ado-Ekiti Health Centre.Data were collected for 100 patients the arrival times,time service begins,time service ends,and the departure time for each patient were recorded for 14 days. From the analysis,the arrival rate,service rate, traffic intensity,average number of patients in queue,average number of patients in queue,average number of patients in the system,average time spent on queue among other things were obtained for the health centre,from which necessary interpretations made. ····· 10361101453

SOME STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF BIOLOGICAL DATA WITH PREDICTIVE MODELING

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In the present monograph we have tried to analyze two different problems. The first problem is the Dental versus Distance data for children up to the age of fourteen and tried to give some Models which we thought to be relevant in our case. Also we had made some predictions on data. The second problem originated in Mathematical biology and is called Lotka- Volterra Model for Prey Predator Dynamics. ····· 10361101919

TWO-PHASE SAMPLING

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Introduction has been given in Chapter 1. In Chapter 2, history of two-phase sampling and some well-known estimators along with their mean square errors and biases are given. Some regression cum ratio product estimators proposed by Hanif et al. (2009, 2010) and Hamad and Hanif (2011) in single and two-phase sampling using two auxiliary variables are discussed in chapter 3 and 4. The empirical study of those estimators is undertaken in Chapter 5. ····· 10361102145

A Process Capability Index for Three-Dimensional Data

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I discuss the estimation of a process capability index for three-dimensional data. Initially, I focus on the case in which the engineering tolerance associated with the measurements is a sphere. Then, I extend the discussion to the more general case in which the engineering tolerance is ellipsoidal. In both cases, I develop summary measures for repeatability and reproducibility, to be used in the context of a process capability index. In the spherical tolerance case I define summary measures, where each measure is based on the diameter of a sphere that leads to a pre-specified capture rate. As a process capability index, I propose ratios, where each ratio is the diameter of such a sphere divided by the diameter of the tolerance sphere. In the ellipsoidal tolerance case, such summary measure is based on the length of the major axes of the ellipsoid of identical shape and orientation to the tolerance ellipsoid providing a pre-specified capture rate. As a process capability index, I propose ratios, where each ratio is the major axis of such ellipsoid divided by the major axis of the tolerance ellipsoid. ····· 10361102185

Investigating X-Chromosome Inactivation

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Females have two alleles for each gene on the X- chromosome, whereas males have only one. This inequality is balanced by X-chromosome inactivation (XCI). This process transcriptionally silences one X- chromosome in every female cell. The choice of which X-chromosome should be turned-o is considered to be random. Studies on mice have revealed that a locus on the X-chromosome, the X controlling element (Xce), signi cantly in uences the choice of which X- chromosome is inactivated. Renault et al. (2007) studied a family of which many of the females exhibit symptoms of the X-linked recessive disease, Haemophilia A. The XCI ratios of the women in this family were signi cantly di erent from what would be expected if the XCI process was random. This studies result is consistent with the human XCE hypothesis. Random and genetic models of XCI ratios are investigated here in theory and are compared to a sample of XCI ratios. Using goodness-of- fit testing, it is determined which models best fit the data. Anderson-Darling statistics and visual inspection of graphics suggest that a three allele genetic model is a good fit to the data, supporting the human XCE hypothesis. ····· 10361102651

DECOMPOSABLE SEMI-REGENERATIVE PROCESSES

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A very known notion of regeneration means that the `future` of a stochastic process became independent from its `past` in some random times, which is usually times of some state (regeneration state) destination. Presence of regeneration times allows to represent appropriate process as independent functional elements, regeneration cycles, investigate its characteristics in terms of them at separate regeneration cycles and proof some asimptotic theorem about this type of processes. If there are several such regeneration states this notion is generalised up to notion of semi- regeneration. In this case the process could be represented as a Markov chain of its cycles. Next step of generalization consists in discovering of some embedded regeneration times that allows to construct some hierarchical structure for the processes, possessing this property. This processes are named as decomposable semi-regenerative processes. The methods of these processes applied then for the investigation of several models: M/GI/1 queueing system, M_r/GI_r/1 priority queueing system, GI/GI/1 queueing system, polling system and reliability of complex hierarchical system. ····· 10361102780

Challenging the Oldest Risk on Earth

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The main objective of this research is to price temperature-related weather derivatves independent of location and payoff structure. We use historical weather data to make distributional forecasts for 10 different weather locations in Germany. Error terms of our forecasts are bootstraped from the empricial distribution to incorporate the non- normality of weather surprises. Explicit pricing dynamics of our model are analysed, along with a discussion on indifference pricing. ····· 10361102830

Differential Item and Test Functioning and Language Translation

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Often, educational and psychological measurement instruments must be translated from one language to another when they are administered to different cultural groups. The translation process often necessarily introduces measurement inequivalence. Therefore, an examination may be said to be culturally biased if the test provides a consistent advantage to one particular race or culture through the manner in which the test items are written. One-thousand American and one-thousand one hundred thirty-four Japanese examinees participating in a scuba diving certification course completed a standardized criterion mastery test for certification. Differential Functioning of Items and Tests (DFIT) proposed by Raju, van der Linden, and Fleer (1995) was used to detect Differential Item and Test Functioning (DIF/DTF). Results from the study support the idea that the translation process contributed little to the cause/explanation for DIF/DTF. Another possible and more influential cause of DIF/DTF was due to individual differences in teaching and leadership styles by Instructors from America and Japan. ····· 10361102838

Scaling properties of financial time series

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The book is devoted to the scaling properties of financial time series. In particular, the book deals carefully with the empirical determination of the Hurst exponent. The main statistical features of the financial indexes are presented, along with a brief overview of the main concepts in probability theory and fractal geometry. Then the role of extreme events and correlations in affecting the behaviour of the Hurst exponent is explained through the analysis of exactly solvable self-similar random walks. Finally the reliability of the multiscaling observed in finance is investigated both from a theoretical and an empirical viewpoint. Since the main result holds under quite general assumptions, the conclusions can be generalized to time series coming from other fields of the complex system physics, like hydrology and geophysics. The book, avoiding excessive formalism, is intended for a wide range of readers. ····· 10361103094

Long-Range Dependence of Markov Chains

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Long-range dependence in discrete and continuous time Markov chains over a countable state space is defined via embedded renewal processes brought about by visits to a fixed state. In the discrete time chain, solidarity properties are obtained and long-range dependence of functionals are examined. On the other hand, the study of LRD of continuous time chains is defined via the number of visits in a given time interval. Long-range dependence of Markov chains over a non-countable state space is also carried out through positive Harris chains. Examples of these chains are presented, with particular attention given to long-range dependent Markov chains in single-server queues, namely, the waiting times of GI/G/1 queues and queue lengths at departure epochs in M/G/1 queues. The presence of long-range dependence in these processes is dependent on the moment index of the lifetime distribution of the service times. These processes of waiting times and queue sizes are also examined in a range of M/P/2 queues via simulation (here, $P$ denotes a Pareto distribution). ····· 10361103112

Progressively Type II Censored Order Statistics and Characterizations

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The theory of ordered random variables is used in many fields of statistical science and inference. Some of ordered random variable models are order statistics, progressively censored order statistics, record values and generalized order statistics. Each one of these models has different interpretations and interesting applications in many fields, for example, in survival analysis, reliability theory, financial economics, etc. In this work, the joint probability density function of nonadjacent Progressively Type II censored order statistics is presented. It is proved that Progressively Type II censored order statistics are reduced to order statistics for special censoring scheme. This reduction theorem enables to extend distributional properties of order statistics into properties of Progressively Type II censored order statistics with this censoring scheme. Then by using this result, for a general class of distributions some characterizations through the properties of conditional expectations of order statistics and Progressively Type II censored order statistics are given. ····· 10361113288

The impact of estimation errors on the option pricing

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The Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution is used as a model of logarithmic returns of index values. We use the Esscher transform and the Black Scholes formula for the option pricing. The calibration of the distribution parameters afects the calculated prices of the European call options. The basic idea is to use a point estimation and its standard errors and then test combinations when the standard errors are added or subtracted to the point estimates. The study is applied to two indexes of the OMX Nordic Market, the OMXS30 and OMXC20. Our results on these indexes show that the parameter which in uences the option price mostly is the peakeness of the NIG distribution. The skewness parameter has the least in uence on the pricing. The option prices based on the NIG and Esscher transform are also compared with the pricing by using Black-Scholes formula and the market prices. The results show that for the OMXS30 index the NIG assumption and the Esscher transform provide calculated prices which are closer to the market prices that the Black-Scholes prices. For the OMXC20 we obtained contrary results. ····· 10361113507

Saddlepoint approximations for linear rank models

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Test statistics from the weighted log-rank class are commonly used to compare treatments when there is right censoring, testing for trend and testing for independence . This thesis uses saddlepoint methods to determine mid-p-values, and confidence intervals from the null permutation distributions of tests from the weighted log-rank class. Analytical saddlepoint computations replace the permutation simulations and provide mid-p-values that are virtually exact for all practical purposes. ····· 10361113767

Computing Application of Classifiers for Marketing Data Mine

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Computing of data patterns is one of hottest trends of learning in the domain of marketing management. It aims to present computing application of classifiers which are employed in surfing and analyzing the marketing data mine. It is meant to explore the useful basic concepts and techniques of marketing data mine and their algorithms in order to efficiently search the informative results connected with their data patterns. The book offers the following special features: Self-expository and simple to follow Specialized in marketing data mine with applications Computing algorithms of high predictive performance Algorithmic compatibility with canned packages and scientific programming languages Deciphering intangible aspect of topics by putting remark` Readership: Researchers, graduate and undergraduate learners in mathematical sciences, information & computer science and management ····· 10361113927

Estimation in the Presence of Measurement errors

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This study considers the problem of estimating the population distribution of independent random variables from error-contaminated samples. The measurement error is also assumed to be normally distributed. Since the observed distribution function is a convolution of the error distribution with the true underlying distribution, estimation of the latter is often referred to as a deconvolution problem. A thorough study of the relevant deconvolution literature in statistics is reported. The intention is to draw more specific connections between certain deconvolution methods and also to demonstrate the application of the statistical theory of estimation in the presence of measurement error. ····· 10361114158

Can Market Volume Help In Predicting Share Market Volatility?

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This book explores a number of statistical models for predicting the daily stock return volatility of an aggregate of all stocks traded on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The study is largely inspired by the work of Chris BrookThe volume of shares traded might be as important as the change in a market index since substantial price increases and decreases are often accompanied by heavy trading activitys (1998).The results of this study project indicate that augmenting models of volatility with measures of lagged volume leads only to fairly small improvements in forecasting performance. The report also shows that the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is vulnerable to financial turmoil in other major markets. ····· 10361114199

BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN TIME SERIES MODELS

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This monograph provides Bayesian inference for change point problems through Mixture model approach in Time series models viz., changes in mean of the time series with and without auto correlated errors, variance changes in the time series model and order changes in the time series models. MCMC technique is used to obtain the numerical solutions. The main aim of the numerical study is to illustrate the evaluation of the estimates of the parameters on the basis of the methodology developed in this monograph. ····· 10361114354

Extending the Quandt Ramsey Modeling to Survival Analysis

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The mixture of two regression regimes has been extensively studied in economics. The test of a mixture of regimes in hazard modeling would be seen to have fundamental importance in biostatistical research but has not been studied. A two-regime parametric mixture is proposed to model the effect of a single covariate on the event time. Typically, the Cox proportional hazards model is applied to estimate a single regime survival regression function. The mixture of two regimes model contains five parameters to be estimated namely, two parameters to describe each regime, and one to describe the mixing proportion. A software program developed for this research finds the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters and the likelihood ratio test of the null hypothesis of a single regime against the alternative of a mixture of two regimes. A simulation study finds an approximation to the null distribution of the test and its approximate power. ····· 10361114627

American option pricing

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An American option is a financial contract between two agents, who agree to buy or sell an asset at a fixed strike price at any time before a specified expiration date. When is the optimal time to exercise the option in order to maximize revenue What is the price of such contract This work aims to answer these questions from a rigorous mathematical perspective while still in a comprehensive way. It develops the Arbitrage-free Pricing Theory, and set the American option price as an optimal stopping problem. There is a self-contained treatment of the existence and characterization of the solution of optimal stopping problems for homogeneous Markov processes. Central to the presentation is to transfer the optimal stopping problem, representing the price of the American option, to a free-boundary formulation by means of the Markovian structure of the stock price process. Then, it is derived the optimal stopping rule by the first passage time of the geometric Brownian motion to a barrier, determined by an integral equation. In other words, the holder will optimally exercise the option at the first time that the stock price process falls below such a barrier. ····· 10361114864

On Multicollinearity and Artificial Neural Networks

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One of the many problems encountered in coming up with a multiple linear regression model is the presence of severe multicollinearity in the data set. In this work, the focus is on the mathematics of multicollinearity -- what it is, what it does to the model, how it can be detected and combated. Aside from the classical methods, artificial neural networks were also employed to combat multicollinearity. Softwares such as Statistical Package for the Social Science (SPPS) Release 7.0 and 10.0 for Windows, MATLAB version 5.3 and Stuttgart Neural Network Simulator (SNNS) version 4.1 were used to carry out the massive computations. ····· 10361115491

Model Choice or Hypotheses Testing?

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This book points the attention on a very crucial topic in Statistics - Model Selection - from a Bayesian point of view. In particular we are interested in analyzing the way in which we have to think and rationalize, when dealing with a problem of model choice. In the Classical background, this problem is strictly related to the field of hypotheses testing, since most of the tools used by Classical statisticians, to support such type of decision, are tests over parameters in the model or likelihood ratios. In spite of this, Bayesian theory allows us to tackle this problem in a more general setting that does not necessarily coincide with the hypotheses testing approach, leading us to the point that a threshold between these two settings is needed. However it is not clear yet where the hypotheses testing ends, and the model selection begins. A possible key to the solution of this matter lies on the definition of a statistical model, and more specifically of a nested model. A model selection problem with nested models identified by inequality constraints will be considered to illustrate this idea, with the support of an application implemented with Matlab. ····· 10361115915

Some Aspects of Discrete Probability Distributions of order k

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One of the important directions of research in the theory of discrete probability distribution is to develop/obtain a large class/family of probability distributions and investigate their various properties, problem of estimation, data fitting, etc. This book deals with the study of various distributions of order k, their distributional properties etc. to some new class of discrete probability distributions. An overview of discrete probability distributions of order k has been elaborated followed by the study of a class of Quasi Binomial distributions of order k, its probability function by considering Abel`s generalization of the Binomial formula and some of their inferential properties have been discussed. Next, a family of univariate Abel series distributions of order k, some of their important properties have been found out. The multivariate case of the family of Abel series distributions of order k have been defined and discussed. Some of their inferential properties have been mentioned. Finally, zero-modified distributions of order k, such as Binomial distribution of order k, Poisson distribution of order k, etc. have been pointed out. ····· 10361116033

Application of Spatial Mixed Model in Agricultural Field Experiment

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Field experiments in agronomy and related disciplines have traditionally been affected by soil heterogeneity. This is because the soil characteristics are typically non-random and show fertility trend, spatial autocorrelation or periodicity. In the same way that spatial modeling is getting popular, robust designs which utilize spatial information are now common. Spatial variation in fertility, moisture, intercepted light, and other environmental factors can bias variety contrasts and inflate residual variation. This book,therefore,is to evaluate the efficiency of spatial statistical analysis in field trials and, particularly,to demonstrate the benefits of the approach when experimental observations are spatially dependent. Three different data sets taken from Ethiopian Agricultural Research Organization were used for the analysis. The analysis should help agronomists and any one else who may be want to analyze spatially related data. ····· 10361119147

Probit and Logit Analysis

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Discrete data are frequently encountered in the entomological and pathological science of agriculture. The relationship between dose and response has been tested by using the probit and logit anaysis in this book. From the analysis, LC50, LT50, LD50, goodness of fit, anlysis of deviance, etc were tested. Rsults revealed that discrete dose-response data on entomological study is best fitted by using either log-probit or log-logit regression rather than probit and logit regression only. The detainled on work is present inside the book. I hope it help more for the professionals, researcher, students who involved basically in entomology and pathology of agriculture. ····· 10361119373

Quantum Algorithms and Quantum Languages

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Quantum Computation is an interdisciplinary field formed by the merge of quantum effect, information theory and algorithms. The future of computing lies with the quantum computers which may be a hypothetical paradigm but surely will be a reality very soon.This book describes about some quantum algorithms and programs which will prove as the foundation of quantum computers in the years to come.In quantum computers we exploit quantum effects to compute in ways that are faster or moreefficient than, or even impossible, on conventional computers. Quantum computers use aspecific physical implementation to gain a computational advantage over conventionalcomputers. Properties called superposition and entanglement may, in some cases, allow anexponential amount of parallelism. Also, special purpose machines like quantumcryptographic devices use entanglement and other peculiarities like quantum uncertainty.Quantum computing combines quantum mechanics, information theory, and aspects ofcomputer science. The field is a relatively new one that promises secure data transfer,dramatic computing speed increases, and may take component miniaturization to itsfundamental limit. ····· 10361131777

Signal Extraction for Linear State-Space Models

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This monograph discusses the decomposition of a vector of time series, described by a linear state-space model, into trend, cyclical, seasonal, irregular and input-related components. The representation and signal-extraction methods employed provide unique advantages, notably the ability to decompose single or multiple time series, the lack of revisions as the sample increases or the independence of the method from specific model formulations. Besides a complete and self-contained presentation of this subject, this text emphasizes in the practical application of the methods described. To this end, each chapter includes several examples of the methods proposed and Appendix A provides a broad description of E4, a free MATLAB Toolbox for time series analysis that can be freely downloaded from ucm.es/info/icae/e4. An Appendix provides the source code and data references required to replicate all the practical examples. ····· 10361131996

Multi-Agent Modelling of Trader Psychology

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Often, situations arise where the assumptions of perfect conditions do not hold. In these situations, a bottom-up approach is more useful, rather than the other way round. Hence, Agent-based modelling is quite an attractive approach to model highly complex and unpredictable elements, such as psychology and behaviour, in financial systems. The recent recession has urged economists and researchers to find new and more open techniques, whereby models are broken down into their constituents, and each constituent is modelled separately, allowing the users of the model to alter the model s applicability by changing the appropriate parameters, making these models very versatile. The model developed during this work has been labelled NABM and has been applied to Barclays stock which is traded on the FTSE 100 stock exchange. The NABM allows its user to study traders behaviour under different market circumstances. The NABM also models the stock price itself, which is influenced by a variety of factors. MATLAB has been used for all modelling and data analysis purposes. ····· 10361132155

Hydrodynamic scaling limit of continuum solid-on-solid model

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Interacting particle systems are stochastic processes proposed by statistical mechanics for the movement of particles at the microscopic scale, with the aim to explain certain physical phenomena. The book discuses the continuum solid-on-solid model, also known as the fourth-order Ginzurg-Landau model, a model developed to understand the relaxation to equilibrium of a crystal surface through diffusion. With rigorous arguments the hydrodynamic scaling limit of continuum solid-on-solid model is shown to be a fourth-order, nonlinear partial differential equation. The fluctuation-dissipation equation of the model is established due to the mathematical result that the model exact functions form a subspace of codimension one in the space of closed functions. Connections between the spaces of closed and exact functions for the second-order Ginzburg-Landau model and algebraic topology are described. ····· 10361132805

Dynamic Modeling of Multivariate Distributions

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The problem of dynamic joint distribution estimation is very important from both theoretical and practical points of view: econometricians would be interested in developing new techniques and approaches to model dynamic joint distributions, whereas practitioners (especially, risk and asset managers) would be interested in obtaining dynamic distributions for computing risk measures and making optimal portfolio choices. This book introduces a new sequential methodology for dynamic joint distributions modeling based on combining small-dimensional distributions into higher-dimensional ones. The new proposition uses marginal and bivariate distributions as inputs, combines them to capture the dependence between one marginal and one bivariate, and then aggregates all of the dependencies to obtain trivariate distributions. Higher-dimensional distributions are built in a similar manner from one-dimension-smaller distributions and univariate ones through compounding and then aggregating them into a single distribution. Additionally, the book demonstrates how to apply this new sequential technique to model five-dimensional distribution of DJIA constituents. ····· 10361133378

Application of Operations Research Techniques in management Systems

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The Primary objective in writing this book is to provide the readers the insight into structures and processes that Operations Research com offer and the enormous practical utility at its various techniques. The aim is to explain the concepts and simultaneously to develop in readers an understanding of problem solving methods based upon a careful discussion of model formulation, solution procedures and analysis. The book is desired to be self-explained and comprises six chapters. First chapter gives the idea about the application of O.R. in real world problems which are related to libraries and banking systems. In Chapters II, III and IV and attempt has been made to explore the application of Queuing Theory, Dynamic programming and Priority Goad Programming in Library management systems. In Chapter V and VI the application of Queuing Theory and other Optimization Techniques has been explained for banking management system. I hope the presentation and sequence of chapters have made the text interesting and lucid. In writing this book I have benefitted immensely by referring to many books and publications. ····· 10361133990

A Study on (a,c,d) Policy Queues

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The objective of this work is to study the behaviour of some queueing systems operating under the control limit policy (a,c,d) $. In a queueing system it may be possible to exercise control over the service mechanism, the service policy and such other configurations in order that the system performance may attain optimal value in a certain sense. Controllable optimization models have been extensively used in the design of problems arising in several applied areas such as production process, telecommunication networks, etc. The performance measures of the associated queueing systems often occur in the objective functions and/or in the constraints of the optimization models. The solution of certain optimization problems depends partly on the concavity and convexity properties of these measures. The earliest effort involving queueing control in the literature is due to Romani (1957). The variable under control was the number of servers in an M/M/c queue. Bohm and Mohanty(1993) considered an M/M/1 queue under (M,N) policy, where the server begins service if the queue size is at least N and continue to serve even when the queue size is less than M, after a service ····· 10361134217

The Impact of Applying Linear Programming on Sugar Transportation

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This book gives clear idea for the benefits of applying scientific approaches in the decision making and as well gives significant encouragement for researchers to focus on applied researches for developing their communities. The models of transportation in this book were supported by applications on WINQSB software for more accuracy and reliability. The book consists of five chapters, chapter one is about the Sudanese Sugar Company (SSC), chapter two introduces the Operations Research and Transportation Modeling, chapter three illustrates the Sugar Transportation Modeling, chapter four represents the Applications of WINQSB in Transportation Modeling and chapter five represents the gist of the research as it gives the recommendations and the expectations behind the contents of this book. ····· 10361134468

Metodología para un algoritmo genético aplicado al diseño estructural

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En este trabajo se presenta un enfoque novedoso de una herramienta computacional que simplifica el proceso de diseño de armaduras, obteniendo una mejor solución que satisface todos los requerimientos de la estructura en un tiempo récord. Se establece un análisis comparativo con los cuatro casos más sobresalientes reportados en la literatura reciente, resultando que el algoritmo propuesto es considerablemente más efectivo. Para demostrar dicha efectividad se presentan soluciones cercanas a óptimos globales en dos problemas complejos de optimización estructural. La optimización estructural está ligada a un proceso iterativo que debe cumplir con diversos tipos de restricciones. En este trabajo se encontró que muchas investigaciones aplican algoritmos evolutivos, pero pocas de ellas aplican operadores especializados en la optimización estructural de armaduras. Aquí se aplicó un análisis de sensibilidad sobre las modificaciones en los operadores de un algoritmo genético para medir su desempeño durante la corrida. Con ello se identificaron las modificaciones necesarias en las operaciones y en la codificación que tendrían el potencial de mejorar la solución. ····· 10361137267

Control Estadístico de Procesos por Redes Neuronales Artificiales

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Los gráficos de control son herramientas importantes para el mejoramiento de la calidad de la producción. No obstante su trascendental aplicación, se reconoce que tienen limitaciones prácticas ya que dependen de la apreciación y juicio humano además de considerar a la variable aleatoria con distribución de probabilidad normal. Cuando la normalidad no se verifica entonces la implementación y uso de éstos gráficos de control se hace compleja. En recientes investigaciones, soluciones alternas se han observado mediante el empleo de Redes Neuronales Artificiales. Aunque las investigaciones mencionadas son amplias y demostrativas de esto, se debe reconocer que estos estudios aún se encuentran en fase de experimentación con datos simulados en el reconocimiento de patrones de variación de los datos. En este libro se presenta un método novedoso de control estadístico de procesos. Este método se basa en el reconocimiento de patrones del proceso de manufactura, en los estados de control y fuera de control del proceso. Se propone el uso de la red neuronal FuzzyARTMAP, cuyos parámetros han sido determinados a través de diseño de experimentos. ····· 10361137321

Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Prices of Singapore

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The changes observed in the electricity markets over the past decade brought about developments in the field of electricity modelling. In this book, traditional ARIMA models and Wavelet-ARIMA models are applied to the Singapore electricity market, Asia`s first liberalized electricity market. Forecasting will be done for each electricity price modelling technique and the adequacy of the models is tested through forecast accuracy. The comparison of forecast accuracy of the models is done across different data behaviors. ····· 10361147389

Statistical Estimation

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Statistical inference has two parts estimation and testing of hypothesis. Here in this book, estimation is discussed and importance is given to point estimation. The properties of point estimators are discussed in detail. The commonly used methods of estimation are also discussed and in the last chapter, Bayesian estimation methods is discussed. The book will be useful to the under graduate students in Statistics and for all those who is studying the subject Statistics and doing Statistical analysis. ····· 10361147404

Predicción de tablas de vida dinámicas hasta el año 2025 para México

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Se presenta un comparativo entre las tablas de vida estáticas y las tablas de vida dinámicas para México. Aunque las tablas estáticas continúan siendo usadas por organismos oficiales, son obsoletas, por lo que se propone utilizar las tablas dinámicas. También se presentan las tendencias de las tasas de mortalidad y se comparan las tablas dinámicas resultantes con las tablas oficiales publicadas. Existen diversos métodos estadísticos para la construcción de tablas de vida dinámicas, sin embargo se eligió el método Lee Carter (LC) porque ha sido usado exitosamente en otros países. Este método es un procedimiento paramétrico que supone que el índice central de mortalidad sigue un modelo exponencial. Las tablas del método LC son eficaces para medir el índice de mortalidad, ya que además de ser dinámicas, están completas mientras que las tablas oficiales son estáticas y sólo se puede obtener una función biométrica, con el método LC se obtiene la tabla completa de siete funciones biométricas. ····· 103613111

Dejar de fumar. Factores que influyen en su éxito

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Las técnicas de clasificación en minería de datos están encaminadas a desarrollar algoritmos que sean capaces de tratar y analizar datos de forma automática con objeto de extraer la información subyacente en dichos datos. La minería de datos hace uso de todas las técnicas que puedan aportar información. Se han analizado 452 fumadores procedentes de la Unidad de Tabaquismo de la Universidad de Zaragoza. En este trabajo se presentan cuatro técnicas de minería de datos: Regresión Logística, Árboles de clasificación, Naives Bayes y Redes bayesianas y se aplican al análisis de los factores que influyen en el éxito de un tratamiento para dejar de fumar. Las variables que más influyen sobre el éxito del tratamiento son las relacionadas con el cumplimiento del mismo, el éxito después de una semana y acudir a la terapia de grupo. La técnicas de mayor éxito han sido, algoritmo J48 de árboles de clasificación, 72,3 % de buena clasificación y 0,711 ROC con muy bajos porcentajes de falsos positivos (40,3%) y falsos negativos (17,3%). ····· 1036122752

Palm theory, mass transports and ergodic theory for group-stationary processes

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This work is about random measures stationary with respect to a possibly non-transitive group action. It contains chapters on Palm Theory, the Mass-Transport Principle and Ergodic Theory for such random measures. The thesis ends with discussions of several new models in Stochastic Geometry (Cox Delauney mosaics, isometry stationary random partitions on Riemannian manifolds). These make crucial use of the previously developed techniques and objects. ····· 10361164434

Multi-Period Credit Default Prediction

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The book deals with the problem to estimate credit default probabilities under a flexible multi-period prediction horizon. Multi-period predictions are naturally desirable because the maturity of loans usually spans several periods. However, single-period models largely prevail in the literature so far due to their simplicity. Predicting over multiple periods indeed entails certain challenges that do not arise within a single-period view. Among the main contributions of this work to the literature is to show that there are relatively simple solutions to these challenges available. From a methodological point of view, a survival analysis approach is used. In a survival analysis context, the time until default (or lifetime) is the central variable under investigation as opposed to the traditional approach of reducing the information to a binary variable representing the default event. Modeling the time until default has the advantage that both the timing of default events and censored data are utilized. Since both issues gain importance as the prediction horizon grows it is no coincidence that a survival analysis approach is selected for the multi-period prediction problem. The main results of the work are the following. First, a new index for measuring the predictive accuracy of default predictions is proposed and its advantages over commonly used indices are shown both theoretically and by an empirical analysis. The second chapter further includes new methods of statistical inference for the new index. In the third chapter, default prediction models for the case of panel datasets with time-varying covariates are dealt with. A new approach is developed that is simpler than the models available in the literature so far. In an empirical study concerning North American public firms, we further provide evidence that the proposed approach delivers more accurate predictions than its competitors as well. In the final chapter, the problem of assigning default probability estimates to given rating grades is examined. If default events are rare, standard approaches have certain drawbacks. As an alternative, an empirical Bayes approach is presented that mitigates the effects of data sparseness. The new estimator is applied to a comprehensive sample of sovereign bonds. Among the main findings of the empirical part is that capital requirements for sovereign bonds are likely to be underestimated by using standard approaches but not when using the empirical Bayes estimator. ····· 10361107722

Risikoproportion und EigenRisiko-Portfolio

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Das Abwägen von Risiken ist neben der erhofften Rendite eine zentrale Komponente der Entscheidungsfindung. Viele Forschungsleistungen wurden schon auf dem Gebiet der Entscheidungsfindung unter Unsicherheit erbracht, um Risikosituationen und das Verhalten von Entscheidungsträgern unter Unsicherheit zu beschreiben. Zentrale Konstrukte sind dabei die Risikopräferenz, um das Verhalten von Entscheidungsträgern zu veranschaulichen, das µ-s-Kriterium, um eine Entscheidung in Abhängigkeit von der Risikopräferenz des Entscheidungsträgers abzuleiten und das CAPM, in dem das Risiko in zwei Komponenten unterteilt wird, nämlich in das systematische und in das unsystematische Risiko. Aufbauend auf diesen Konstrukten wird in diesem Buch das EigenRisiko-Modell entwickelt. Das EigenRisiko-Modell ist ein Instrument zur Portfolioauswahl. Die Entscheidung für ein Portfolio erfolgt durch Berücksichtigung einer Rendite- und einer Risikodimension, wobei letztere das Ausmaß der Abhängigkeit der Portfoliowertentwicklung von Einzelpositionen im Portfolio abbildet. Die Abbildung der Abhängigkeit erfolgt über die Risikoproportion. Die Risikoproportion ø ist damit eine Risikokennzahl und ermöglicht den Vergleich verschiedener Portfolios in Bezug auf ihren Diversifikationsgrad. So wie die Streuung zwei Portfolios in Bezug auf ihr Schwankungsverhalten beschreibt, misst die Risikoproportion die Abhängigkeit von Einzelpositionen in einem Portfolio und macht sie über mehrere Portfolios vergleichbar. Sie erlaubt eine Aussage darüber, welches Portfolio in einer Stress-Situation riskanter ist und kann damit die Risikobeschreibung des Normalbelastungsfalls über Kennzahlen der Renditeverteilung des Portfolios ergänzen. Aufgrund der im Vergleich zu Stress-Tests einfachen Berechnung der Risikoproportion ist sie in der Lage, ohne großen Aufwand in die Entscheidungsfindung bei Unsicherheit einzufließen. Das EigenRisiko-Portfolio ist unter bestimmten Voraussetzungen µ-ø-effizient und bei einem positiven Zusammenhang zwischen Rendite und Risiko zudem bedingt renditemaximal. Für einen risikoaversen Entscheider, der in ein diversifiziertes Portfolio investieren möchte, ist die Anlage in das EigenRisiko-Portfolio somit rational. Basierend auf der Annahme, dass ein Investor von der Dominanz seines individuellen Portfolios zum Investitionszeitpunkt ausgeht, beinhaltet das EigenRisiko-Portfolio die ursprünglichen Risikofaktoren und optimiert lediglich die Anteilsstruktur, so dass aus jedem individuell präferierten Risikofaktorset durch Variation der Anteile ein diversifiziertes und bedingt renditemaximales Portfolio dieses Risikofaktorsets erzeugt werden kann. Um einen angenehmen Einstieg in das Modell zu finden, werden die Risikoproportion und das EigenRisiko-Portfolio ausführlich hergeleitet. Dabei wurde auch auf eine gut verständliche Präsentation der Inhalte geachtet, die erreicht wird durch das Zusammenspiel von verbalen Erläuterungen, graphischen Darstellungen und mathematischer Notation sowie einem detaillierten Abkürzungs- und Symbolverzeichnis. ····· 10361107741

Optimales Stoppen und das Static Forecasting Problem

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In dieser Arbeit werden zwei verschiedene Themengebiete behandelt. Zunächst wird das sogenannte Static Forecasting Problem betrachtet. Dabei handelt es sich um eine Problemstellung aus der Zeitreihenschätzung, für welche schwach universell konsistente Schätzer hergeleitet werden. Die stark konsistenten Algorithmen aus der bestehenden Literatur haben den Nachteil, dass sie zu große Datenmengen benötigen, um sie anwenden zu können. Diesen Nachteil besitzen die neu vorgestellten Schätzer nicht, was im Verlauf der Arbeit in einer Simulationsstudie belegt wird. Das zweite Themengebiet, das betrachtet wird, ist das des optimalen Stoppens in diskreter Zeit mit endlichem Zeithorizont. Der Standardansatz zur Lösung dieses Problems setzt die Kenntnis der Verteilung der zugrundeliegenden Beobachtungen voraus. Der Arbeit von Kohler und Walk (2013) folgend wird eine auf Verteilungs-/Modellebene nichtparametrische Stoppregel hergeleitet, die lediglich auf Beobachtungen aus der Vergangenheit basiert. Der zugehörige erwartete Gewinn konvergiert mit wachsendem Stichprobenumfang gegen den erwarteten Gewinn der optimalen Stoppregel. Hierbei wird nur vorausgesetzt, dass die dem Stoppproblem zugrundeliegende Folge von Beobachtungen stationär und ergodisch ist und eine milde Integrierbarkeitsbedingung des Gewinns erfüllt ist. Die Optimalität der Stoppregel für endlichen Stichprobenumfang wird durch eine Simulationsstudie zum optimalen Ausüben Amerikanischer Optionen illustriert. ····· 10361107849

Limiting Behavior of Interacting Particle Systems

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This book, addressed to researchers and students interested in interacting particle systems, is a study on the application of a law of large numbers and stability criteria to understand the asymptotic behavior of particle systems. The aim is to investigate the limiting behavior of a stochastic interacting particle system both as the size of the population N grows to infinity,being the time t fixed,and t grows to infinity,being N fixed. The limiting behavior as the size N grows to infinity is achieved as a law of large numbers for the empirical process associated with the interacting particle system,while the long time behavior is characterized in terms of the convergence of the particle distribution to an invariant distribution. By applying the same criterion for the convergence to the invariant measure to the continuum time version of the Minority Game, an upper bound for the asymptotic behavior of the waiting time for reaching the stationary state is obtained. ····· 10361102899

Analysis of Zero Altered & Inflated Data

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Zero altered models were fitted and applied to two datasets (one from Malawi and another from Zambia). Malawi data were collected in a cluster randomized study, in Chikhwawa district in 2004, with 18 villages randomized to intervention and control arms with a total of 1642 participants. Zambia data were collected from school children in a cross-sectional study in Lusaka province in 2004 with a total of 2040 participants. Results from the study showed that Negative Binomial Logit Hurdle (NBLH) model offered best-fit to data inflated with zeros with capability to handle over-dispersion, excess zeros and capture true zeros in the data. Its implementation and interpretation, ease of components, and its direct link with observed data make it a valuable alternative for analyzing zero inflated count data. Conclusions drawn from the study indicated that Helminths were highly localized, with small section of people harboring parasites showing heterogeneous infection risk for both Malawi and Zambia settings. Joint modeling approach allowed identification of risk factors for infection presence and severity hence provide a platform to design combative control efforts. ····· 10361133465

Synthetic Estimators Using Auxiliary Information in Small Domains

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An unbiased estimate is obtained from a sample survey for a large area when this estimate is used to derive estimates for sub areas on the assumption that the small areas have the same characteristics as larger area, we identify these estimates as synthetic estimators`. One of the simplest estimators arises from the assumption that the small area mean is equal to the larger area mean. This leads to the simple synthetic estimator under simple random sampling or stratified random sampling or post stratified sampling as the case may be. Synthetic estimation may also be based on auxiliary data. Such estimators are, for example, ratio-synthetic, product -synthetic and regression - synthetic estimators. ····· 1036120078

Introduction to Modern Sampling Theory

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This book provides an introduction to modern sampling survey theory. The author proposed an original approach based on an index free formalism. This formulation turns out to be ideal for taking advantage of many modern statistical software (such as Matlab or R), which allow managing vectors and data matrix as single algebraic objects. The book represents an introduction covering all the topics usually treated in standard sample survey books, such as: random samples and sampling designs, estimators and their properties, non-response. Moreover, even though sampling algorithm theory is not presented systematically, the author provides a large set of codes and examples allowing the reader to implement almost every sampling scheme discussed within the book. Only basic knowledge of algebra, calculus, probability and programming, that are within the academic curriculum of any scientific graduated student, is required. The aim of the book is to provide all the basic scientific knowledge and technical tools needed to start projecting and developing a modern sample survey. ····· 1036187425

Estimating correlation using intraday price data in financial markets

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The focus of the present work is set on correlation in the setting of financial markets. More precisely, the chief interest lies in efficient estimation of the correlation between returns of asset pairs, which is achieved by using additional information on the price processes. The meaning of additional information is twofold - on the one side it means information on daily highs and lows in addition to daily open and close prices, on the other side it refers to high-frequency data. Building on results in Rogers and Zhou (2008), we introduce a new construct - Balanced Excess Return (BER), which is the sum of the wicks (more precisely the balance of the wicks since the upper and the lower wick have a different sign) in the classical Japanese candlestick illustration of the open, high, low, close (OHLC) data. In the setting of a Brownian Motion (BM) model we show that the correlation of the BERs is intimately connected to the process correlation, which indicates their importance for the estimation of the latter. Using the BERs we derive efficient and robust correlation estimators. The improvement of the estimators suggested in this work over the ones given in Rogers and Zhou (2008) is largely due to the fact that the latter (implicitly) assume that the process variances are known. In order to shed some light on the pitfalls of this seemingly innocent assumption we set the stage by discussing correlation estimation in the normal model. After introducing the baseline BM model we analyse modern approaches in correlation estimation. We distinguish between two cases. In the first one only daily OHLC prices are available, whereas the second one deals with highfrequency data. We conduct extensive simulation studies to check the efficiency and robustness of the suggested estimators. In particular we study the effects of jumps and excess kurtosis as exhibited by Merton Jump diffusions, Symmetric Variance Gamma and Normal Inverse Gaussian processes as well as the effects of dependent increments as exhibited by Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. The practical importance of the suggested estimators is emphasized in an empirical study on their statistical properties and, subsequently, in an application in the portfolio selection field. ····· 10361108028

SPSS 22

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Diese Einführung in die moderne Datenanalyse ist das Standard-Lehrwerk für SPSS-Anwender. Praxisorientiert werden anhand zahlreicher interessanter Beispieldatensätze univariate, bivariate und multivariate Verfahren vermittelt. Die umfangreichen Fallstudien sind dem sozialwissenschaftlichen, dem medizinisch-psychologischen, dem wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen sowie dem naturwissenschaftlichen Bereich entnommen. ····· 10361185167

Gráficos de Probabilidad

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En esta memoria se analizan distintas técnicas gráficas que serán utilizadas como una herramienta para el estudio de la normalidad de un conjunto de observaciones. Principalmente nos centramos en el gráfico Cuantil-Cuantil (Q-Q Plot), el gráfico Probabilidad-Probabilidad (P-P Plot) y el gráfico de Probabilidad Estabilizado (S-P Plot), propuesto por Michael en 1983. El objetivo es poder utilizar dichos gráficos como una prueba de normalidad. Para ello, proponemos añadir en el gráfico correspondiente, unas `bandas de confianza` que nos sirvan para decidir si podemos admitir que los datos proceden de una distribución Normal, sin necesidad de acudir a ninguna técnica analítica complementaria. En este sentido, realizamos la extensión de las bandas propuestas por Lozano-Aguilera tanto para los P-P Plots como para los S-P Plots. Todas las ténicas gráficas y los elementos analíticos que aparecen en esta memoria, han sido programados en R y todos los scripts se aportan como Apéndice de la misma. ····· 103611397

Técnicas de estimación e inferencia de las curvas ROC

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Los tests diagnósticos continuos son a menudo empleados para discriminar entre las poblaciones que presentan o no una determinada enfermedad. La curva ROC ( Receiver Operating Characteristic ) es una herramienta estadística para evaluar la eficacia o capacidad de discriminación de un test diagnóstico. Es independiente de la prevalencia de la enfermedad en estudio y mide el grado de solapamiento entre las distribuciones de sanos y enfermos. Una vez que se conoce el objetivo de la metodología ROC, otra cuestión que cabe tener en cuenta es la estimación de una curva ROC. En este trabajo se presentan los métodos de estimación e inferencia de la Curva ROC que se han propuesto en la literatura para la creación de una curva ROC basada, generalmente, en resultados procedentes de un test continuo. La estimación de una curva ROC puede basarse en modelos paramétricos, semiparamétricos o en un modelo completamente paramétrico. Una aproximación paramétrica correctamente especificada generalmente produce una curva más suave y eficaz que la proporcionada por la aproximación no paramétrica. Todas las estimaciones se ilustran mediante un ejemplo biomédico real. ····· 103612235

Estimation Methods for Small Area Statistics in Repeated Surveys

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The requirements for small area statistics have been in great demand by public as well as private sectors because the governments are interested in obtaining statistics for smaller domains such as States, Provinces, Districts, Tehsils, Blocks and Village Panchayat etc or different racial and ethnic subgroups for implementing their policies at local. These domains are called small area-the term SMALL refers to the fact that the sample size in the area or domain from the survey is small. The Small Area Statistics (SAS) method like synthetic etc. may be used to utilise such data for obtaining small area estimates of change in the parameters or an overall estimates over a period of time or most efficient small area estimates on current occasion. In this book, we have presented estimations methodologies for small areas statistics in repeated surveys. Also an empirical study is carried out to show the properties of the proposed estimators. ····· 103613555

Statisticheskie metody kontrolya i upravleniya kachestvom

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Rassmatrivaetsya evolyutsiya metodov kontrolya i upravleniya kachestvom s glubokoy drevnosti do nashikh dney. Izlagayutsya osnovy statisticheskogo myshleniya. Analiziruyutsya razlichnye traktovki termina `kachestvo` klassikami kvalitologii. Razbirayutsya osobennosti primeneniya semi prostykh instrumentov kachestva i algoritm ikh ratsional`noy posledovatel`nosti. Izlagayutsya osnovy filosofii kachestva Taguti. Rassmatrivayutsya osnovy kontseptsii `Shest` sigm` i dayutsya rekomendatsii po ispol`zovaniyu etogo podkhoda na praktike. Analiziruyutsya osnovnye vidy kontrol`nykh kart po kachestvennomu i kolichestvennomu priznaku. Pokazan poryadok raboty s kontrol`nymi kartami Shukharta i kumulyativnymi kontrol`nymi kartami. Razbirayutsya razlichnye sposoby vyborochnogo kontrolya: metod odnokratnoy vyborki, osnovannyy na kriterii Neymana-Pirsona i posledovatel`nyy metod, osnovannyy na kriterii Val`da. Predlagayutsya modifitsirovannye metody, sovmeshchayushchie dostoinstva ranee izvestnykh. ····· 103615372

Fitting of New Standard Growth Curves of Children`s Nutritional Status

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As physical structure of human body in different countries differs according to their geographical location which results dissimilar growth pattern hence need to access the nutritional aspects at national level for within country policy to identify undernourished children. The construction of child growth curves followed a careful methodological process using large cross-sectional data from National Family and Health Survey,India(1992-2006). The selection of the best statistical approach to construct the growth curves was adopted from WHO standard. The Box-Cox-power-exponential (BCPE), with curve smoothing by cubic splines, was selected to construct the curves. The BCPE accommodates various kinds of distributions, from normal to skewed or kurtotic,as necessary. There was wide variability in the degree of freedom required for the cubic splines to achieve the best model. Height-for-age standard followed a normal distribution where weight-for-age standard required the modeling of skewness but not kurtosis. At age 24-28 months the risk of being classified as stunted is considerably higher according to the WHO and after age 12 months, under weighted are higher than new growth standards. ····· 1036118078

Integrity Assessment of Corroded Pipeline Using ILI Data

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The integrity evaluation of the corroded pipelines has long been, and continues to be, a concern for the industry. Besides with the advancing age of the pipeline infrastructure and the competitive marketplace, cost effective maintenance and rehabilitation is increasingly important. This paper considers essential theoretical or statistical concepts and data requirements for engineering structural assessment suitable for estimate the present and future integrity of corroded pipelines. For purpose of this study the DNV RP F101 code has been used to evaluate the pipeline condition by calculating the remaining allowable operating pressure. An important outcome is the good quality estimation of the longer-term probability of loss of pipeline integrity subjected to the longer-term corrosion behaviour. ····· 1036118772

Stochastic Linear Regulator Problem in Optimal Control Theory

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Stochastic optimization problems are the study of dynamical systems subject to random perturbations which can be controlled in order to optimize some performance criterion. The research on control theory has developed considerably over last few years, inspired in particular by stochastic optimization problems emerging from mathematical nance. Problems involving linear dynamics and quadratic performance criteria are generally called linear regulator problems. The usual framework of control is the one given in probably the most studied control problem, the linear quadratic optimal control problem or the linear regulator problem, which deals with minimizing a performance index of a system governed by a set of dierential equations. The object of linear regulator control problems is to control the position of a certain process and at the same time, the force with which this process is being regulated, by punishing quadratic deviations from some targets of the process and the rate of regulation, respectively. ····· 1036120091

Series Temporales. Análisis Práctico con SPSS y SAS

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Una serie temporal es el resultado de observar los valores de una variable a lo largo del tiempo en intervalos regulares (cada día, cada mes, cada año, ). El análisis de las series tiene como objetivo explicar la evolución pasada de la serie para predecir sus valores futuros. Para ello, es necesario desarrollar métodos y modelos matemáticos y ajustarlos a nuestros datos reales. Esta metodología necesita un apoyo informático para su aplicación en problemas reales, en nuestro caso hemos elegido los programas SPSS y SAS. Por esta razón, este libro se ha desarrollado con tres objetivos fundamentales: Primero, exponer de forma sencilla y clara los modelos teóricos necesarios para el Análisis de Series Temporales, tanto desde un punto de vista descriptivo como inferencial. Segundo,ilustrar mediante ejemplos con datos reales, como llevar a la práctica los modelos teóricos, utilizando en cada problema el software adecuado para resolverlo. Para ello, todos los datos de los ejemplos y ejercicios están disponibles en una dirección web. Y tercero, enseñar a elegir en cada caso el modelo más adecuado para el análisis de la serie e interpretar correctamente los resultados obtenidos. ····· 1036122754

Calculus I

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Calculus: the related areas of differentiation, integration, sequences and series, that are united in their reliance on the idea of limits. Additional topics: complex numbers and trigonometric functions. This simplifies the discussion of the classical functions of calculus (i.e. trigonometric, hyperbolic, exponential, logarithmic) and their relations. Relation between calculus and analysis: Calculus: intuitive and operational ideas, no emphasis on strict step-by-step logical derivation e.g. derivative as limit of a ratio, integral as limit of a sum initially (Newton, Leibniz) without rigorous definition of limit . Analysis: logical, rigorous proofs of the intuitive ideas of calculus Rationale behind this division of work: Hard to prove a theorem without being already familiar with the unproven (but strongly believed in) result. Hard to understand the need for the rigorous style of analysis until one has sufficient experience with calculus to realize the need to prove theorems, and to appreciate the beauty and elegance of such a logical formal treatment. ····· 1036186861

Statistical Estimation of Survival Time of Cardiac Patients

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Cardiovascular diseases accounts for 30% of global deaths. Share from developing countries is much higher than the developed countries. The medical and socioeconomic consequences of the projected increase will be disastrous. Health care facilities required for providing appropriate clinical evaluation of and optimal management for the many millions of CVD patients would be far beyond the scope of most developed countries. Thus, the need to contain the epidemic as well as combat its impact and minimize the CVD toll in terms of mortality and morbidity in the developing countries is obvious and urgent.This research is an effort on estimation of survival time of cardiovascular diseased patients under various conditions by using different statistical techniques. This will help to device strategies to reduce mortality and economic impact of this disease. ····· 1036189098

Evaluación de riesgos aplicando lógica difusa

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# ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· ····· 1036190471

Probabilidad y Procesos Estocásticos

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Este texto está orientado a estudiantes y profesores de Ingeniería en Telecomunicaciones a nivel de pregrado y posgrado. Se presenta como el resultado del estudio y análisis de la teoría de probabilidades y procesos estocásticos, aplicados en la descripción y análisis temporal y espectral del comportamiento aleatorio de la señal de información en sistemas de telecomunicaciones. Comportamiento aleatorio debido principalmente a disturbios, interferencias y ruido, producidos durante el procesamiento y la transmisión de la señal de información. El autor expresa su agradecimiento a la Universidad del Cauca por avalar la realización de este texto como producto final del proyecto de año sabático. Proyecto que consistió en la elaboración de un documento de texto-guía en Probabilidad y Procesos Estocásticos con Aplicación en Telecomunicaciones. ····· 1036190944

Stochastic Modeling of Composite Materials

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This book is devoted to generating of non-periodic structures of two-fibre composite material. The first part deals with the well-known principles and laws of random processes. The whole introductory part tends to the application of random processes to the composites, e.g. anizotropy or spatial correlation. The most frequently used and well-known algorithms for generating non-periodic patterns are presented here. Next, the description of inner microstructure is discussed together with the methods of detection of complete spatial randomness. The theoretic part ends with detailed description of four algorithms developed by the author for generating random structures with non-constant diameters of fibres. In the second computational part the comparison of simulated samples obtained by new algorithms and real ones is presented. This comparison is made by mean of techniques of a descriptive statistic. Moreover, the assumptions of normality and homogeneity of samples are checked. These assumptions are usually necessary for next computations, e.g. ANOVA. In conclusion, the obtained results are summarized and the simulated samples generated by different algorithms are compared. ····· 1036192475

Towards Fuzzy Learning Classifier Systems

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This work aims to provide some new view on the learning of the rule-based systems and explore some possibilities of the autonomous processing of knowledge. Theoretical focus is given on the reinforcement learning, learning classifier systems and fuzzy logic. The second main part of the book proposes an application of the described theory as a new form of a learning rule-based system, suitable for solving tasks in the field of robotics or other problems, where a series of actions is being searched. The proposed approach is evaluated on a set of model problems. In the conclusion, weak sides and necessary improvements are discussed. The book aims to be a small step in the whole process of building an intelligent system - it puts together some ideas in hope that it will be inspiring for others to advance state the art a little more. ····· 1036199020

Automatic Recognition of Dysarthric Speech

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Dysarthria is a motor speech disorder characterized by weakness, paralysis, or poor coordination of the muscles responsible for speech. Although automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems have been developed for disordered speech, factors such as low intelligibility and limited phonemic repertoire decrease speech recognition accuracy. Furthermore, conventional speaker adaptation algorithms that improve normal speech recognition may not perform as well on dysarthric speakers. Instead of adapting the system, two main techniques are proposed to model the pronunciation errors made by the speaker: (1) a set of discrete hidden markov models (termed as `metamodels`) that incorporate a model of the speaker`s phonetic confusion-matrix into the ASR process and (2) a network of Weighted Finite-State Transducers (WFSTs) at the confusion-matrix, word and language levels. These error modelling techniques attempt to correct the errors made at the phonetic level and make use of a language model to find the best estimate of the correct word sequence. Hence, these techniques when integrated into the speech recognition process performed significant error correction and improved speech recognition ····· 1036199340

ORDER STATISTICS, RECORDS AND GENERALIZED ORDER STATISTICS

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In applied statistics, one observes a random quantity X, a number of times and based on these observations, one would like to conclude facts about the distribution function F(x) of X. The only method of finding distribution function F(x) exactly, which avoids the subjective choice, is a characterization theorem. Important consequence of characterization theorem is that these results help us in better understanding the structures and implications of the choice of distribution for a special problem. Regarding moments of generalized order statistics (gos), a concept introduced by Kamps (1995). Order and record statistics are particular cases of gos. Recurrence relations have great importance due to these reasons: (i). Reduce the amount of direct computations and hence reduce the time and labour (ii). They express the higher order moments in terms of the lower order moments and hence make the evaluation of higher order moments easy (iii). Provide simple checks to test the accuracy of computation of moments of order statistics. This book provides some new characterization and moments of order statistics, records and gos. ····· 10361101630

RGG on a Class of Densities with Unbounded Supports

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The study of random geometric graphs begins with Gilbert (1961) in his paper titled as `Random Plane Networks` published in Journal of the Society for Industrial Applied Mathematic. In this thesis, we study the RGG, whose vertices have the densities with unbounded support. We study the various properties of RGG and are interested in both exact and asymptotic results for one-dimensional as well as d-dimensional (d 1). % The thesis is divided in four chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the concept and the utility of RGG and gives an idea about the techniques and tool which are used in the thesis. % In chapter 2 we study the one dimensional random geometric (random interval) graph when the location of the nodes are independent and exponentially distributed. We derive exact results and limit theorems for the connectivity and other properties associated with this random graph. We show that the asymptotic properties of a graph with a truncated exponential distribution can be obtained using the exponential random geometric graph. % In chapter 3 we prove the criticality of the exponential rate of decay for the largest nearest neighbor link in RGG. % ····· 10361102428

Inference for Normal Mean with Known Coefficient of Variation

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Many of the phenomena observed in biological, physical and other natural sciences follow normal distribution. In the past few years, the primary interest was the inference concerning mean and variance of the observations, especially those which were related to the biological measurements. In such experimental study the past data provides information on the coefficient of variation (c.v.). When the data is analyzed for the final trials, past information on the variability in the yield can be made use of, for the estimation of the mean. The c.v. is a stable measure of dispersion and thus does not change quite rapidly over the years or between the locations. The focus of this book is the inference concerning normal mean with known c.v. The performance of the estimators proposed in the literature are extensively studied and new tests are proposed for the mean. The performances of the tests are studied through simulations and through higher order asymptotics by deriving Edgeworth expansion for the null distribution of the test statistics. ····· 10361102866

A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF CHANGING TIME SERIES MODELS

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This Monograph provides Bayesian Methodology for Structural Change problems through Changes in Parameters of the models and Structural Changes through Mixture of Models in Time series Analysis. It also deals the models with auto correlated errors and derived the Bayesian solutions. A computer simulation study was carried out. The main aims of the numerical study are (i) to illustrate the evaluation of the estimates of the parameters on the basis of the methodology developed and (ii) to compare the two different methodologies developed based on the estimates. ····· 10361102993

Role of auxiliary information in estimation of population mean

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In survey sampling we are often concerned with the estimation of population parameters with the use of auxiliary information, which may be available (or made available by diverting a part of the resources) in one form or the other. If used properly, this information may provide better estimates than those where such information is not used. In this context improved classes of estimators of population mean with the use of auxiliary information, improved ratio and product type of estimators have been developed for estimation of population mean of study variable .The families of estimators of mean have been proposed for various situations of auxiliary characters such as when variance is known and population mean unknown, when variance is unknown and population mean known and neither population mean nor variance is known. Further various classes of improved ratio type estimators and product type estimators have been developed. The large sample properties of the proposed estimators of mean, ratio and product type estimators have been compared with conventional and other estimators through empirical study for different sample sizes. ····· 10361113764

Some advances on quadratic BSDE

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This book deals with some of the recent advances of the theory of Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDE) with generators that grow quadratically in the control variable (qgBSDE). One starts by looking at the differentiability of these equations in its several parameters, the relevance of which is clarified as one builds new results for this class of equations, like path regularity or explicit convergence rates for truncated qgBSDE. Both these results are the first of its kind for qgBSDE, as they allow at last the required theoretical justification for the use of numerical methods to approximate the solution qgBSDE. The exponential transformation as a reduction method of qgBSDE to standard Lipschitz BSDE is also discussed. This leads once again to the theme of numerical approximation for this class of BSDE. The book concludes with a problem of optimal investment of insurance related derivatives written on non-tradable underlyings, but correlated with tradable assets. Dynamic utility-based indifference prices are calculated and closed form formulas for the prices and for the derivative hedges are given. ····· 10361116057

Estudio de la Fiabilidad de Sistemas con Reparaciones Pospuestas

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El presente trabajo se encuadra dentro del marco de la teoría de la fiabilidad y de la teoría de procesos estocásticos. En este trabajo se presenta un nuevo proceso estocástico, denominado proceso potencial, que permite modelar tiempos de operatividad y/o de reparación en un sistema en deterioro. Para este proceso estocástico se estudian sus principales propiedades, sobre todo las que se refieren a convergencia, órdenes estocásticos y clases de envejecimiento. La segunda parte de esta tesis se dedica al estudio de una nueva política de mantenimiento de sistemas reparables que está basada en el concepto de reparación pospuesta. La idea principal de esta política es que la reparación de los fallos que sufre el sistema se pospone hasta un momento en que la reparación sea menos costosa. Esta política de mantenimiento se desarrolla bajo dos modelos. Para ambos modelos, se analiza el beneficio esperado por período laborable con el fin de determinar cuál es la política de reparación óptima. Asimismo, se ilustran los resultados teóricos con ejemplos numéricos. ····· 10361116541

El Gasto en Publicidad como Determinante de las Ventas en el Ecuador

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En los últimos años, la publicidad ha cobrado una alta importancia ya que ha invadido todos los medios de comunicación, además es uno de los instrumentos más importantes de promoción que se utiliza para incrementar los niveles de ventas. Las empresas recurren a reglas sencillas para fijar el presupuesto de publicidad que puede resultar poco satisfactorio en la práctica porque es poco probable que represente un nivel óptimo. Dado que los estudios sobre esta temática son escasos en el país, este trabajo tiene por finalidad determinar el efecto que tienen los gastos en publicidad sobre las ventas de las empresas del sector Comercio al por Mayor en el Ecuador, a partir de la información proporcionada por la Superintendencia de Compañías CIIU Rev.3, utilizando la metodología econométrica de datos de panel. Por lo tanto, se pretende conocer si el gasto en publicidad usado es óptimo, es decir si las empresas maximizarán sus beneficios y se observa las condiciones que las variables de mercadotecnia deben cumplir en ese óptimo. Además, se determina la relación existente entre publicidad y concentración de mercado, comprobando si la publicidad produce un cambio en la estructura de mercado. ····· 10361117022

Exchange Rate Prediction using Support Vector Machines

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With an estimated $4.0 trillion average daily turnover, the global foreign currency exchange market is undoubtedly considered the largest and most liquid of all financial markets. The exchange market is a complex, nonlinear, and a dynamic system of which its time series, represented by the exchange rates, are inherently noisy, non-stationary, non-linear, and of an unstructured nature. These characteristics, combined with the immense trading volume and the many correlated influencing factors of economic, political, and psychological nature, has made exchange rate prediction one of the most difficult and demanding applications of financial forecasting, and an issue of much interest to both academic and economic communities. Being able to accurately forecast exchange rate movements provides considerable benefits to both firms and investors. This research aims to propose a decision support aid to these firms and investors, enabling them to better anticipate on possible future exchange rate movements, based on one of the most promising prediction models recently developed within computational intelligence: the Support Vector Machine. ····· 10361132478

Queuing Models for Multi-Product Pull Type Inventory Systems

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Competitive pressures are forcing manufacturing companies to find new ways to provide a wide variety of products at reduced costs. Pull type material control strategies that make efficient use of available production capacities and optimize inventories could be very useful in improving factory operations. However, there is aneed for analytical tools that precisely model the operating characteristics of multi-product pull systems. Such models should not only provide reasonably accurate performance estimates butalso be amenable to rapid analysis of performance tradeoffs. This book presents an analytical approach to solve multi-product systems with pull type material control strategies. A state of the art queuing theory based approach to solve analytical models for multi-product pull systems is being discussed. A parametric decomposition based approach is used to analyze multi-product pull systems under different settings such as batch size constraints, multi-stage production, finite demand and raw material. The approach presented in this book has been found to be reasonably accurate even in realistic settings. ····· 10361132782

Clustering, Cluster Inference and Applications in Clustering

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Multivariate mixture models provide a convenient method of density estimation and model based clustering as well as providing possible explanations for the actual data generation process. But the problem of choosing the number of components in a statistically meaningful way is still a subject of considerable research. Available methods for estimation include, optimizing AIC and BIC, estimating the number through nonparametric maximum likelihood, hypothesis testing and Bayesian approaches with entropy distances. In our book we present several rules for selecting a finite mixture model, based on estimation and inference using a quadratic distance measure. In this book we also develop tools for determining the number of modes in a mixture of multivariate normal densities. We use these criterion to select clusters which display distinct modes. Finally we fine tune our methods to analyze gene-expression data from micro-arrays, and compare them with other competitive methods. ····· 10361133408

Studies on a New Class of Shock Models

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Most of the real world systems are subject to online deterioration resulting in higher production cost, lower product quality and missed schedules. Thus the study of optimal repair, replacement and warranty strategies assumes a special significance. The objective of the present thesis is to propose and analyze a new class of models for deteriorating systems. Amongst the many approaches to model deteriorating system, shock models by virtue of their tractability and applicability to diverse areas has attracted the attention of modelers. Traditional shock models view system failure as a first passage problem of the cumulative damage process to cross a threshold. This thesis proposes a new class of shock models in which system failure is dependent on the frequency of shocks and explicitly obtains the various statistical characteristics of system failure. The thesis presents several optimal replacement problems of deteriorating systems within the ambit of the proposed class of models and explicitly obtains the optimal replacement times and the associated cost. The procedures are illustrated with numerical examples. ····· 10361133516

Estimation of Variance Components

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Estimation of variance components in mixed linear models is an important problem in statistical inference to draw a valid and meaningful interpretation in many practical areas of research. ANOVA, Analogous to ANOVA, SS Approach, ML, REML, MML, MINQUE, MIVQUE and QLSE are some of the important methods available in literature for estimation of variance components in general mixed linear models. In this book we have introduced MTE, WQLSE and modified MIVQUE estimators and also derived their variances and also the covariance matrices. In fact we have presented the explicit computable expressions for the computation of MTE, WQLSE, Modified MIVQUE estimators and their covariance matrices. The relative performance of MTE, QLSE, WQLSE, MIVQUE and Modified MIVQUE estimators are assessed by numerical evaluations based on different optimality criteria like T-Optimality, D-Optimality and M-Optimality together with their variances for various n-patterns. I hope that this book may be a useful guide for the applied workers to solve their practical problems and a reference book for the researchers to do research in variance components estimation. ····· 10361133626

Robust and Response Surface Designs

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In literature, lot of work has been done on optimal, robust and response surface designs. These designs are very useful for performing trial run in the industries for obtaining optimum and efficient results with lesser number of trials. More of the work in literature relates to symmetric designs, whereas practically in industries generally all the factors can not be on same number of levels. This book deals with various robust asymmetric designs under the concept of non-isomorphic interaction graphs, response surface designs, moment aberration designs, non-isomorphic hidden projection properties and optimal block designs in non-regular Hadamard matrices. This book also deals with the concept of maximum estimation capacity of three-level combined arrays. Nevertheless, this book should be useful to academics for their future research in this preview. Especially useful for automobile, pharmaceutical, agriculture, chemical industries etc. wherever large number of trial runs is required and one wants to reduce the number of runs in their trial experiments. It would save them on money and at the same time would give them efficient designs for their product manufacturing. ····· 10361133826

On the power of the sign test for the case of Laplace distribution

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In applied economics and science, the popularity of Laplace distribution as a probabilistic model has increased exponentially over the last decades. It had a long way from the first law for the error of measurement to one of the most used models for fitting economical and financial, biometrical and demographic, technological and engineering data. This increased interest from applied sciences motivates the Laplace distribution to be investigated in mathematical statistics and theory of probability. The nonregularity of the Laplace distribution makes known difficulties of its use in problems of testing statistical hypotheses. So, there is no the uniformly most powerful test for testing a simple hypothesis against a complex one-sided alternative for the case of Laplace distribution. In the present work, we use an asymptotic approach to solve a similar problem. We derive a test based on the sign statistic, calculate the deficiency of the test, provide approximations to the power function. Applied scientists can use the results to process their observations. For mathematicians, this book provides fertile ground for further investigations in asymptotic statistics. ····· 10361135676

Algoritmos de estimación de señales

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Este trabajo está relacionado con el estudio del problema de estimación de señales discretas a partir de observaciones inciertas y observaciones retrasadas aleatoriamente cuando no se dispone completamente del modelo de espacio de estados de la señal que se desea estimar, sino que la única información disponible son los valores observados, la distribución de las variables indicadoras que modelizan la incertidumbre o el retraso en las observaciones y las funciones de covarianzas de los procesos que intervienen en la ecuación de observación. Los algoritmos de estimación se obtienen mediante un enfoque por innovaciones, que simplifica sustancialmente su obtención. También se presentan algoritmos recursivos para la obtención de las matrices de covarianzas de los errores de estimación, que proporcionan una medida de la bondad de los estimadores obtenidos. Para ilustrar la aplicación de los algoritmos, se implementan en MatLab diversos programas que, en cada iteración, simulan la señal que se desea estimar así como la observación correspondiente y proporcionan tanto los estimadores como las matrices de covarianzas de los errores de estimación. ····· 10361136161

Prediction of Extreme Offshore Structural Response

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The most reliable technique for predicting the statistical properties of the response of an offshore structure to random wave loading is the time simulation technique. However, this technique requires very long simulations in order to reduce the sampling variability to acceptable levels. If this technique can be speeded up, then it would be an ideal technique because it does not suffer from any of the inadequacies of the alternative methods and is applicable to all different types of structures. To this end, a more efficient version of the time simulation technique (ETS) has been introduced which divides the simulated response extreme values into a number of groups based on the magnitude of the extreme values of their associated surface elevation or linear response records. The probability distribution of extreme responses for each group is then calculated individually based on a relatively small number of simulations. Finally, the total probability theorem is used to derive the probability distribution of response extreme values. The ETS procedure is found to be many times more efficient than the conventional method. ····· 10361101254

A Bivariate Pareto Distribution for Modeling Load Sharing Dependence

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Usually in statistical modeling, one comes up with a model taking into consideration the physical aspects of the situation. In the present study we considered load sharing dependence in a two component parallel system. Though load sharing dependence is popular in reliability studies this dependence is common in socio-economic situations also. Freund (1961) has designed a bivariate exponential model for the life testing of a two component parallel system which incorporates the above said load-sharing dependence. If the operating environment affects both the components differently, then assuming a gamma distribution to model the environment, the above system reduces to assuming two independent Pareto II distributions instead of exponential distribution. Taking into consideration these assumptions we develop a new model which incorporates the load sharing dependence. This model finds application in the areas of survival analysis, reliability analysis and economics. ····· 10361836

Probability Distribution Function for Pomegranate Evapotranspiration

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The study was conducted to know the appropriate probability distribution for weekly reference crop evapotranspiration (ETr) values at desired probability levels for Solapur, Ahmednagar, Pune and Nasik stations of Maharashtra, India. ETr values were estimated by Penman-Monteith, Modified Penman, Hargreaves-Samani, Pan Evaporation, Blanney-Criddle, and Radiation methods. Based on the root mean square error, Hargraves-Samani found to be the best method for Solapur and Nasik stations and Modified Penman for Ahmednagar and Pune stations. The probability distribution functions selected were Normal, Log Normal, Gamma, Gumbel and Weibull s. Results of probability distribution analysis indicated that, more than one probability distributions were found suitable for finding weekly ETr values. ETr values estimated at 20 %, 60 % and 90 % probability levels in graphical representation for all the methods using the probability distribution of the best fitted were presented. The weekly values at 70 % probability level of ETr were determined and presented for ready reference. ····· 103613816

Introduces Stochastic Processes in Mathematical Finance

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This monograph gives an overview of current methods for solving to stochastic differencial equations both analytical and numerical and considers several applications of mathematical finance models in the context of derivative pricing. In particular, credit risk models are incorporated into the pricing of derivative contracts such as CDS with counterparty default risk etc. Also, monograph introduces contingent claims theory and summarizes some important applications such as Black-Sholes formulae computed for options on shares and futures, Chapmen-Kolmogorov equation, Heath-Jarrow-Morton methodology for interest-rate modeling. ····· 1036118511

Seasonal ARIMA Model for Pomegranate Evapotranspiration

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The study was carried out for stochastic modeling of reference crop evapotranspiration values estimated by Penman-Monteith method from daily records of climatic parameters. Seasonal ARIMA modeling was performed for the generation and forecasting of weekly ETr values. The steps viz. standardization and normalization of time series variables, identification of the models, determination of the parameters of selected models, diagnostic checking and selection of the best model were performed for fitting the models. The ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,0,1)52, ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)52, ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)52 and ARIMA(0,1,1) (0,1,1)52 models were selected for forecasting and generation of weekly ETr values. The forecasted water to be applied were estimated from the crop coefficient, wetted area, total area of the tree and efficiency of the drip irrigation system for the pomegranate tree of 1st to 5th year age. These are: for Solapur station-3.1, 7.1, 19.5, 27.3 and 35.4 litres/day/tree for Ahmednagar station -2.8, 6.5, 17.7, 24.8, and 32.2 litres/day/tree for Pune station -2.5, 5.7, 15.9, 22.3, and 28.9 litres/day/tree for Nasik station 3.3, 7.7, 21.5, 30.18, and 39.4 litres/day/tree. ····· 1036120741

Multivariate Proportional Hazards Model

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Survival data are often clustered into groups, such as couples, families, communities, and geographical regions. Observations from same cluster usually share certain unobserved characteristics and as a result tend to be correlated. In multivariate proportional hazards model correlations among observations are considered. In analysis if associations among observations are ignored, standard error of the estimates of parameters of interest may be incorrect. The parameters estimates yielded by the multivariate proportional hazards model are very similar to those yielded by the standard hazards model. Present research deals with the extension of the Cox model that allows for heterogeneity due to omitted covariates using frailty (random effect) approach, and there by uses a more general class of mixed-modeling that estimates predictors via parametric and non-parametric regression. In this study, Cox model and multivariate proportional hazards model are used for analyzing birth interval of Bangladesh using Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS, 2004) data. This result of this study indicates that, the unobserved cluster effect has a sizeable impact on birth interval in Bangladesh. ····· 1036121073

Some Aspects on Confirmatory Factor Analysis of Ordinal Variables

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This thesis, which consists of five papers, is concerned with various aspects of confirmatory factor analysis of ordinal variables as well as in the generation of non-normal data. The first paper studies the performances of different estimation methods used in confirmatory factor analysis when ordinal data are encountered. The second paper also investigates the approach used in confirmatory factor analysis of ordinal data. However, the appropriate estimator of the polychoric correlation is of interest. The third paper, although using the same confirmatory factor analysis model, varies from the first two papers by raising the issue of simultaneous factor analysis. The last two papers shift to the area of generating non-normal data. Starting from the univariate case, the fourth paper assesses the performance of the Fleishman`s power method under various conditions of skewness, kurtosis, and sample size. The last paper extends the evaluation of algorithms on generating univariate non-normal data to multivariate non-normal data. ····· 1036188851

Kernel Estimation for the Mode and Quantiles of Time Series

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In this book, we are interested in the area of nonparametric prediction of time series. Therefore, the relationship between a current observation and past observations is considered, where the conditional density function plays an important role. Two aspects of the conditional probability density function, the mode and the quantiles are studied. Firstly, in the case of the mode, we state some sufficient conditions under which the joint kernel estimator of the conditional mode taken jointly at a finite number of distinct points is asymptotically normally distributed. Secondly, a new multivariate estimator for a multivariate conditional quantile is proposed, based on the reweighted Nadaraya-Watson estimator for the conditional cumulative distribution function. The efficiency of the proposed estimator is tested by giving two applications. The book also, involves a review which covers in sufficient details the up to date literature on kernel estimation for conditional mode and quantiles. ····· 1036198606

Developing Theories and Procedures for Practical Survey Problems

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Advancement in information technology and enhancement of computing power has made possible application of modern and sophisticated sampling techniques like adaptive cluster sampling, bootstrapping, randomized response etc. in large socio-economic surveys. However, a good number of these have been developed for simple random sampling with replacement (SRSWR) only and thus cannot be applied to complex practical surveys. This book provides an account of improvements on as well as application of advanced statistical methods in practical complex surveys that predominantly use varying selection probabilities. Here developments on adaptive as well as constrained adaptive cluster sampling, bootstrap, compulsory vis-à-vis optional randomized response, scrambled randomized response, privacy protection of respondents, estimation with missing units, logistic regression modelling with randomized response etc. are discussed in the context of practical surveys along with suitable applications. Performances of new methodologies are evaluated using real as well as simulated data. The development should be useful to graduate students, teachers, researchers, survey practitioners and professionals. ····· 10361100329

Variance Estimation for Bayesian Dynamic Linear Models

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Time series modelling and in particular multivariate time series have received considerable attention in the literature over the past 20 years. Time series data are met in almost all subject areas, such as in economics, engineering, medicine and genetics, to name but a few. One of the key problems of multivariate time series analysis is the estimation of the covariance matrix of the data, as this holds important information of the co-evolution and correlation of the component time series data of interest. The aim of this book is to provide an account of the recent developments on this subject area and subsequently to develop methodology for tackling the problem of variance estimation in time series. The book introduces the basic modelling framework for state space time series models and then it provides estimation algorithms, within the Bayesian paradigm, for several classes of models. The book is aimed at both masters/Ph.D. students in a numerate discipline (such as statistics, mathematics, economics, engineering, computer science, and physics) and postdoctoral researchers interested in time series methods. ····· 10361100803

Biased Estimation Methods with Autocorrelation using Simulation

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The ordinary Least Squares method is considered as one of the most important way of estimating the parameters of the general linear model because of it`s ease and simplicity and because of rationality of the results obtained when the specific assumptions are achieved regarding the general linear model . One of these assumptions is that the value of the error term in time is independent on its own preceding value or values E(Ut Ut-s) = 0 s 0 if this assumption does not hold then we have problem of autocorrelation . The other assumption is that the explanatory variables in the model are orthogonal [R(x) = p+1 n ] if this assumption does not hold then we have problem of multicollinearity. In this book we will try to discuss these two problems simultaneously. ····· 10361115278

Optimal Operating Strategies Under Stochastic Cash Flows

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We solve a series of four stochastic control problems for a firm whose cash flows are a diffusion process that includes (individually): (i) Financial distress costs (ii) Costs of company politics (iii) Agency costs of free cash flow and (iv) Physical asset upgrades. Amongst other things, our results show that: (a) There are conditions for which asset substitution (risk taking when close to broke) is optimal, with financial distress costs (b) When politicking amongst employees exists, it is optimal to keep the firm extremely small by downsizing frequently (c) Increasing the free cash boundary (or equivalently increasing cash obligations) would reduce the agency costs associated with free cash flow from overly negligent managers (d) It is optimal to have a buffer cash zone before upgrading technologies, rather than upgrade immediately. We solve for the optimal operating strategy using an algorithm that includes applying Itô calculus, the use of martingale theory and linear programming. We use sparse matrix techniques, a manageable number of constraints and the MOSEK solver embedded into Matlab this technique is a quick and easy way to solve this class of stochastic problems. ····· 10361146719

Safety and Environmental Risk Model for Inland Water Transportation

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Waterway collision accident has potential risk to loss of life, damage to the environment, disruption of operation, injuries as well as instantaneous and point form release of harmful substance to water, air and water and long time ecological impact. Hybrid use of probabilistic, stochastic and statistic tools to analyze accident frequency and consequence for risk quantification of accident scenarios is very imperative for reliable design and exercise of technocrat stewardship of safety and safeguard of environmental. This book present generic model for risk and reliability analysis of inland water transportation system (IWTS) development. The book use the case study of Langat River in Malaysia and discuss result and validation of implementation Safety and Environmental Risk and Reliability Model (SERM) for aversion of collision accident for vessel navigating for inland waterways and deduced generic risk mitigation option required for operational, societal, limit definition and technological change decision support for development of sustainable IWTS. ····· 10361146732

Métodos estadísticos en el análisis de la gravedad accidental laboral

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El trabajo muestra e identifica los tipos de riesgos y de lesiones que originan las bajas de mayor duración. Se han utilizado las técnicas de minería de datos (Algoritmo Chaid y Cart). Se demuestra la utilidad de las nuevas metodologías Data Mining en la resolución de problemas del ámbito de la salud. Con este resultado tenemos información para la toma de decisiones para las empresas a la hora de la planificación preventiva sobre accidentes laborales y también sirve en la práctica clínica ya que valora la gravedad de las lesiones de los pacientes implicados. ····· 1036122496

The Regression Model of Machine Translation

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Regression based machine translation (RegMT) model provides a learning framework for machine translation, separating learning models for training, training instance selection, feature representation, and decoding. Transductive learning approach employs training instance selection algorithms that not only make RegMT computationally more scalable but also improve the performance of standard statistical machine translation (SMT) systems. Sparse regression models for SMT are introduced and the obtained results demonstrate that sparse regression models perform better than other learning models in predicting target features, estimating word alignments, creating phrase tables, and generating translation outputs. We develop good evaluation techniques for measuring the performance of the RegMT model and the quality of the translations. We demonstrate that sparse L1 regularized regression performs better than L2 regularized regression in the German-English translation task and in the Spanish-English translation task when using small sized training sets. Graph based decoding can provide an alternative to phrase-based decoding in translation domains having low vocabulary. ····· 10361146680

Fault Tolerance and Science-Optimal Attitude Planning for Spacecraft

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This book presents a framework named CFT-SOAP for fault tolerant mission planning with a specific type of spacecraft mission as an application. Although the material is mostly targeted for Aerospace community, but the real purpose shall be served if this concept is taken up and used in other domains as well. The key idea is to use the knowledge of the dynamics of the system as well as the knowledge of composition of the system to help develop a mission execution policy that includes detection, avoidance, and reconfiguration for the possible faults in the system. Fault tolerance is not the only feature of the mission policy generated by CFT-SOAP. Another salient feature is science optimality i.e. maximization of the expected scientific reward obtained from the mission. Cost and reward functions have been developed that can be adapted for other applications. Like any other comprehensive approach, the approach in this book comes at a cost. In this case, the cost is computational complexity. There are certain ways to reduce this cost but at the expense of losing optimality. Hence a tradeoff is identified between the complexity and optimality. ····· 10361133515

Rekurrentnoe modelirovanie diskretno-nepreryvnykh Markovskikh protsessov

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Razrabotan metod rekurrentnogo modelirovaniya ukazannykh protsessov i ego posledovatel`noe primenenie s detalizirovannymi algoritmami dlya sistem i setey massovogo obsluzhivaniya s proizvol`nymi raspredeleniyami kolichestv raboty po obsluzhivaniyu trebovaniy. Vkhodyashchie potoki: rekurrentnyy, s ogranichennym posledeystviem, neodnorodnyy polumarkovskiy. Skorosti obsluzhivaniya zavisyat ot diskretnykh i nepreryvnykh komponent Markovskikh protsessov i opisyvayutsya differentsial`nymi uravneniyami. Izlozheno primenenie metoda k ryadu slozhnykh sistem, daleko vykhodyashchikh za predely sistem i setey massovogo obsluzhivaniya. Dana otsenka tochnosti rezul`tatov modelirovaniya s uchetom pogreshnostey iskhodnykh dannykh. Dlya spetsialistov v oblasti teorii slozhnykh sistem, teorii veroyatnostey i ee primeneniy, teorii massovogo obsluzhivaniya, informatsionno-vychislitel`nykh setey, telekommunikatsionnykh setey svyazi i peredachi informatsii, inzhenerov, aspirantov i studentov starshikh kursov vuzov. Retsenzent zamestitel` direktora Instituta prikladnoy matematiki DVO RAN, professor, doktor fiziko-matematicheskikh nauk G.Sh.Tsitsiashvili. ····· 103615301

Elements of Statistical Methods

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This book will assist undergraduates of any institution to apply the use of statistics to their carrier. It will in no doubt help the lecturers of statistics to teach the course effectively to their target audience. The professional students will also find the book easier to use and pass with flying colours. The basic concepts are quite easy to understand and the exercises are good for tutorial questions that will help the users to pass in their various examinations ····· 1036146

Forestry Statistics and Research Methods

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Illustrations, examples and easy to understand presentations of statistical procedures and research methods have dealt with this book. Analysis of variance made easy through computer base statistical analysis. Descriptive statistics dealing with group and ungroup data have been clearly discussed. Data collection, presentation, analysis, interpretations, sampling technique, measures of central tendencies, position, variability, normal distribution of data, skewness and kurtosis have been fully presented. Discussion on Inferential statistics includes one-way and two-way classification analysis, assumptions underlying ANOVA, factorial experiments, mean comparison, and regression-correlation analysis with some output from SAS. The book also provide Problem Set to test the comprehension and retention of students and any one who may use it for research purposes. ····· 1036118784

Elementos de estadística descriptiva

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La aplicación de métodos estadísticos en las investigaciones educacionales es una necesidad que se acrecienta día a día, como ocurre en general con las ciencias sociales. Aunque existe consenso sobre la importancia de estos métodos, la práctica revela con suficiente elocuencia que muchas veces se aplican incorrectamente e incluso se obvian por temor al positivismo o por su mero desconocimiento. El presente libro no persigue vindicar los métodos estadísticos, pues ellos lo consiguen por sí mismos en el marco de la matematización de las ciencias. El principal propósito consiste en iniciar al lector en el riguroso mundo de la estadística descriptiva, la cual es además el primer eslabón en el estudio de la estadística matemática. Esta obra es el fruto de varios años de docencia en sendos doctorados curriculares de Pedagogía General, y corresponde a los primeros temas del curso dictado por el autor, titulado: Estadística Aplicada a la Educación. La obra va dirigida a todos aquellos que se inician en el complejo, profuso y fascinante mundo de la investigación educacional. ····· 1036123290

Understanding Statistics

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This book is design to College students and other Professionals who would like to enhance knowledge on social and educational statistics. The book deals with uses and importance of statistics, collection and presentation of data, sampling technique, data organization, descriptive statistics such as frequency distribution, measures of central tendencies, position, dispersion/ variability, skewness, kurtosis, and normal distribution of data. Discussion and concrete illustrations on regression and correlation analysis, t- test, F-test, z-test, chi-square test, alternative non-parametric analysis of variance, one-way classification and two-way classification analysis of data. The methods of social research presented will enlighten young researcher on the appropriateness of statistical tools they will use in the analysis of data. ····· 1036125309

Crop Climate Simulation Modelling

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A stochastic model based on first-order Markov chain was developed to simulate daily rainfall. The model is capable of simulating daily rainfall data of any length, based on the estimated transitional probabilities, mean, standard deviation and skew coefficients of rainfall amounts. A study of rainfall probability is an approach to sound planning for any variation of rainfall either small or large. The simulation model has been used successfully to estimate daily rainfall. The Multivariate logistic regression is used to estimate the probability that it is raining. The logistic regression technique is used to compare between the actual and simulation results for a rainfall from January to December in Bangladesh. The probability of occurrence of rainfall is of vital importance in efficient planning and execution of water use program. This study describes a crop-climate simulation model under rainfed conditions in Bangladesh to be used as a tool for analyzing growth and yield to help planning and management of rice production. ····· 1036125704

Combinatorics in sample surveys vis-a-vis controlled selection

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This book is concerned with the applications of combinatorics to survey sampling with special reference to controlled sampling. The use of combinatorics helps in obtaining sampling designs which exercise control on sample selection. The book begins with preliminaries of sample surveys and in the end gives appendices which describe the concepts of experimental designs for the benefit of the readers. Some controlled sampling designs generated and the SAS codes for generation of sampling designs are also given in these appendices. The main chapters of the book focus on the applications of binary incomplete block designs, linear programming and linear integer programming for generation of controlled sampling designs both for equal and unequal probability sample selection. The book also covers applications of Hadamard matrices, mixed orthogonal arrays and proportional frequency plans in variance estimation from a large scale complex survey data. The book meets the requirements of the master`s level students in Statistics with interest in theory of sample surveys and design of experiments while some portions may be found useful for research scholars and consulting statisticians. ····· 1036188252

Statistical Analysis of Crimes in India

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Crime is an integral part of society. Crime is not only a subject of great interest for the students of sociology and law but it has become a topic of major public interest because of the raising rate of crime. The upward trend in crime rate can be attributed to modern urbanization and industrialization, advance of science technology growth of civilization and advent of materialization. Police services have become the most essential of the various public sector industries. The job of policing covers a wide range of activities including traditional crime detection and prevention. The police, court and prison are the main sources of crime statistics. Crime statistics involves counting of crimes in order to relate them to time place and circumstances. The statistics of crimes help the law enforcement agencies to spot out preponderance of crime at a particular time place and region. ····· 1036188762

Time-dependent analysis of state-dependent queues

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Queueing theory is the study of waiting lines, or queues and it has proved to be useful in a wide range of discipline from telecommunications to chemical kinetics and epidemiology. A queueing system usually involves an arrival process, service time distribution, service discipline, system capacity, etc. and steady-state performance measures extensively studied. However, time-dependent probabilities are important in applications and they do not involve convergence conditions. The main objective of this monograph is to study the time-dependent analysis of state-dependent queues and a wide variety of problems related to them by employing straightforward analytical and numerical methods. One of the fundamental and significant contributions is to obtain exact transient solutions to birth and death processes with general state-dependent birth and death rates. This problem was open for several decades. The same methodology has applied to obtain the transient probabilities of state-dependent discrete-time queues. The study of overflow processes of loss systems, N-policy and Multiprocessor systems are also included. Some interesting identities are presented for complex summations. ····· 1036192599

System Reliability Assessment of Corroded Pipelines

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`System Reliability Assessment of Offshore Pipelines` portrays the application of probabilistic methods in assessing the reliability of these structures subjected to corrosion. The analysis interprets corrosion data as random variables and probabilistic functions, through which uncertainties of corrosion inspection tool can be taken into account. The reliability of the pipeline is studied by treating the structure as an independent unit. The analysis is further elaborated for pipelines arrayed as a series system of units, with the consideration of length effects. A framework for the reliability-based maintenance model is also developed, aiming at optimizing the pipeline system operations. Herein, the analysis is mainly focused on improving the practice of releasing corrosion inhibitors into the pipeline. The use of inhibitors is considered to be the most applied maintenance practice among pipeline industries because of its simple mechanism to fight against corrosion. Last but not least, the research also looks into interpreting corrosion in space using theories on hydrodynamics. ····· 1036199377

Contributions to Spatial Uncertainty Modelling in GIS

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Environmental data is very costly and difficult to collect and are often vague or imprecise in nature. Fuzziness and small datasets leads to uncertainty, which is addressed by the research objective of this book: To model spatial environmental data with fuzzy uncertainty, and to explore the use of small sample data in spatial modelling predictions, within Geographic Information System (GIS). The methodologies underlying the theoretical foundations for spatial modelling are examined, such as geostatistics, fuzzy mathematics Grey System Theory, and Credibility Measure Theory. Fifteen papers including three journal papers were written in contribution to the developments of spatial fuzzy and grey uncertainty modelling. The book is a particularly useful tool to postgraduate students and researchers, who work on uncertainty modelling, and with small sample spatial or GIS data. ····· 10361101107

Statistical Methods for Linking Health Effects to Air Pollution

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Statistical models play important role in linking health effects to environmental risk factors like air pollution. Associating ambient air pollution to human health based upon short term effect can underestimate health effect coefficients. In this scenario, generalized linear and additive models with distributed lag effect of ambient air pollution are realistic in estimating these coefficients. Environmental burden of disease studies based upon such effects produce pragmatic effects. Indoor air pollution (IAP) is a major health threat in developing countries where most people use biomass fuels for cooking. Effects from IAP can be estimated using statistical models which incorporate multiple modeling tools of logit model and principal component. Moreover, optimally scaled categorical regression is suitable for predicting pollutant concentrations inside kitchens when measurements are costly. Estimates are derived by applying above models to some rural and urban areas of Nepal. The book is useful to students, professionals, and researchers involved in studies linking health effects to air pollution. ····· 10361101836

Business Statistics For Beginners

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Business statistics for the beginners introduces the subject to those students who are studying for professional and academic degrees such as those in the commerce field of study. The book simplifies the mater which many students fear, thus removing the statistics fobia amongst the students. The chapters are organised logically to assist the learner to move from stage to stage without any difficulties. Worked examples are provided where the authors have explained the variuos stages of calculations that need to be done. All what the student needs to do is to practice with the exercises that are given at the end of each chapter. This is making statistics a very easy and simplified subject which has been dreaded by many students. We are sure the student and the reader will find this beginners book user- friendly ····· 10361102091

Statistical Modeling for the Analysis of MALDI-TOF Mass Spectrometry

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The analsyses involve novel as well as application oritented statistical methodologies applied to the mass spectrometry based proteomics data. This is a new research area in the statistical point of view, and it requires non-routine statistical modeling approaches. The analyses are based on the assumption of unknown peptide sequences. In such situation, more elaborate statistical modeling approaches need to be developed, to account for the uncertainty caused by the estimation of the masses of the peptides. Two topics are considered in the analyses. The first topic is to separate and quantify overlapping peptides for the label-free applications. The challenge to this topic is to distinguish the isotopic peaks from different peptides which cause an overlap in a spectrum. The second topic aims towards one of the recently developed labeling techniques-- the enzymatic 18O labeling. The key difficulty lies in this topic is how to account for incomplete labeling, non-constant residual variance, etc. Both frequentist and Bayesian approaches are applied. Bayesian analysis becomes the unique choice when non-identifiability issues arise without the incorporation of prior information. ····· 10361103066

Periodically Correlated Time Series: Models and Examples

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A coherent presentation of material scattered in journal papers is given. The relationship between periodic models and multiple ARMA models is discussed and employed to make the investigation of these two classes theoretically equivalent. This book discusses notation and representation issues for periodic autoregressive models for univariate periodic time series. In addition, a new representation, the multi-companion (MC) presentation is proposed. This book also reviews the application of the maximum entropy principle to time series and obtain some new results. The main contribution is that it solves the autocovariance extension problem in a far more general setting than previously known. The study of entropy was motivated by periodic correlation but the main results on this topic are more general. A formula for the entropy of a periodically correlated process is given and seems to be new. Finally, the book proposes a method for generation of periodically correlated models with given spectral properties which has no analogue in the literature. ····· 10361113041

Statistical Logics For Research

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The book has been written in very simple and graspable language. The research methodologies developed for research work in any field are incorporated in the book. Apart form research workers, the book is very useful for under- graduate, post graduate and doctoral students for their research work as well as for academic understanding. The book devoted on fundamentals and advance concepts of statistical logics. The advanced methodology have been included in the book like regession analysis, path analysis, discriminant function and optimization, etc. The methods have been developed for estimation of total number of branches, leaves, leaf area and consumption of carbon-di-oxide by a tree. And many more. ····· 10361113359

RETRIAL QUEUEING SYSTEM WITH PRIORITY SERVICES

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The aim of this book is to analyse the various behaviour of Retrial queueing system. To motivate, many examples have been quoted.In this book, concepts like priority services,vacation policies,unreliable server,second optional service,negative arrival,vacation interruption and variable service rates have been discussed and 24 models have been developed. System performance measures of these models have been dealt and numerical and graphical studies have been done in elaborate manner. This book will be highly useful to those who are working in the area of queueing theory, Stochastic models in Operation Research and communication Engineering. ····· 10361113726

CMARS: A New Contribution to Nonparametric Regression with MARS

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This book is originated from my MSc thesis supervised by Prof. Dr. Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber at Institute of Applied Mathematics (IAM), and Assoc. Prof. Dr. nci Batmaz at Department of Statistics, Middle East Technical University (METU), Turkey. Multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) denotes a modern methodology from statistical learning which is very important in both classification and regression, with an increasing number of applications in many areas of science, economy and technology. CMARS which is developed at IAM, METU, as an alternative approach to the well-known data mining tool MARS. CMARS is based on a penalized residual sum of squares for MARS as a Tikhonov regularization problem. It treats this problem by a continuous optimization technique called Conic Quadratic Programming. The boundaries of this optimization problem are determined by the multiobjective optimization approach which provides us many alternative solutions. Based on these theoretical and algorithmical studies, this work also contains applications on the data for the quality control. By these applications, MARS and our new method CMARS are compared. ····· 10361113746

Statistical Techniques for Family Planning Measures

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Family welfare programme in India and Rajasthan and development from the beginning i.e. from 1952 onwards are explained. The district wise and year wise performance of various Family Planning Methods are presented. The trends and forecasting, the estimation of different contraceptive needs in the districts of Rajasthan is also obtained. Method of calculating the exact Couple Protection Rate (CPR) for the year 1991 and 2001 for the different Family Planning Methods is also presented. Factor analysis is applied on NFHS-II data, from which 21 variables are assessed and has some interdependent. By using NFHS-I and NFHS-II data, a comparison of the progress of different contraceptive methods with the different Socio-Economic and Cultural Characteristics is given. A statistical tool called CYP Index and CYP Prevalence Index is developed for evaluation of performance of acceptance of various Family Planning Methods. The different statistical model is developed for the different Family Planning Methods. These models are helpful to the health manager, social scientist and policy makers to identify the factors that require more interventions. ····· 10361115750

La Emancipación Juvenil

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En el presente trabajo se han analizado los factores que influyeron en la emancipación de los jóvenes de la Comunidad de Madrid en el periodo 1966-1991. Dichos factores se han agrupado en las áreas siguientes: características demográficas, composición y nivel socioeconómico de la familia de procedencia, nivel de formación y actividad económica del joven, situación económica de la región en estudio y destino de la emancipación. Haciendo uso de la teoría de la utilidad aleatoria se han implementado los modelos logit, constante por tramos y logit secuencial a una muestra de casi 6500 personas, tomada sobre los datos procedentes de la Encuesta Sociodemográfica efectuada por el Instituto Nacional de Estadística en 1991. ····· 10361116305

Measurement and Assessment of Survey Quality

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Most of the guidelines and methods available to measure and assess survey quality are based on qualitative descriptions. In practice, they are difficult to implement. Hence there is a demand to develop a quantitative tool to effectively measure and assess survey quality. The tool developed in this book enables survey researchers and/or commissioners to make a holistic assessment of the value of the particular survey(s). It is an Excel based audit following all stages of the survey from inception, to design, construction, execution, analysis and dissemination. At each stage a set of criteria are applied to assess quality. Scores attained against these assessments are weighted by the importance of the criteria and summed to give an overall assessment of the stage. The total score for a survey can be obtained by the combination of the scores for every stage weighted again by the importance of each stage. The advantage of this tool is to construct a means of survey assessment which can be used in a diagnostic manner to evaluate and improve survey quality. The target audience of this book may comprise students, scholars, practitioners and researchers. ····· 10361118340

Non-Markovian Stochastic Processes and their Applications

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This book represents a forward step in the comprehension of the relationships between certain non-Markovian processes and many integral-partial differential equations usually used to model systems manifesting long memory properties. The author made the book the more self consistent as possible by presenting all the advanced mathematical tools needed to understand the original parts. In particular, fractional Brownian motion and fractional Gaussian noise are presented as elementary examples of non-Markovian processes. These processes, together with FARIMA processes, can be used to model and estimate Long-Range Dependence (or long memory) in many contexts: physics, meteorology, hydrology, but also finance, economy, etc. Within the book LRD is studied, statistics and parametric methods of estimation are presented and many real data examples are provided. Then, the theory of fractional integrals and derivatives, which results very appropriate to model long-memory systems, is introduced. Finally, generalizations of the normal diffusion are investigated and, in order to find a connection with LRD, grey Brownian motion and more general non-Markovian processes are defined and studied. ····· 10361119065

STOCHASTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS AND ITS APPPLICATIONS

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This book gives a comprehensive introduction to some modern problems of stochastic differential equations and its applications. The content can be divided into four primary parts.1) Generalization of standard growth condition of the diffusion coefficient of Ito equations.2) Two parametric Ito formula and Stochastic Goursat problem, 3) Cauchy problem for linear and nonlinear stochastic equations of the parabolic type. 4) Applications. Latter part deals with: Stochastic boundary value problem of the hyperbolic type, Stochastic vibration of mechanical systems under high frequency external random forces, Stochastic Schrödinger Equations, and Elements of Derivatives pricing. ····· 10361132435

Monte Carlo method for linear and nonlinear boundary value problems

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Availability of multiprocessor computers, allows us to solve many complex problems using Monte Carlo method. Monte Carlo methods have been further developed to solve a variety of multidimensional integrals, linear and nonlinear boundary value problems. In monograph we used the deep connections between differential equations and random processes. This connection has been known long ago, the results of the theory of differential equations have been widely used in the theory of probability and vice versa. The solutions of large class linear and nonlinear equations of elliptic and parabolic type may be represented in the form of integrals over the trajectories of Markov process. In the current work we study the approaches connected with simple and branching Markov processes. We obtained effective unbiased estimators for the solutions. Constructed numerical algorithms are strict proved and used for the solution of problems of mathematical physics. This book meant for specialists of numerical methods who applied Monte Carlo methods for the solution boundary value problems, calculating multidimensional integrals and work in the area financial mathematics and statistics. ····· 10361132681

Probabilistic Concepts in Signal Processing

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Received B.Sc. in Geophysical Engineering (St. Louis U., 1961) and worked in oil exploration until completing doctoral exams in 1968. Performed marine engineering surveys in British Columbia until becoming head of marine geophysics at U. of Utrecht in 1987. Joined the U. of Mississippi in 1997 where he is a Research Associate Professor.Received B.Sc. in Geophysical Engineering (St. Louis U., 1961) and worked in oil exploration until completing doctoral exams in 1968. Performed marine engineering surveys in British Columbia until becoming head of marine geophysics at U. of Utrecht in 1987. Joined the U. of Mississippi in 1997 where he is a Research Associate Professor. ····· 10361134008

Técnicas de cokrigeado para el análisis económico

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En este libro, la autora introduce una técnica original de la Geoestadística en la Economía a través de su aplicación a la estimación de precios de viviendas y locales comerciales en la ciudad de Toledo (España). Destaca el claro y minucioso desarrollo teórico de las técnicas de kriging lineal, no lineal y cokriging, métodos de interpolación idóneos ante la presencia de correlación espacial del fenómeno objeto de estudio. Son numerosos los campos en los cuales dichas técnicas han resultado exitosas además de en el mercado inmobiliario, entre los que merece la pena destacar los procesos electorales y el medioambiente. ····· 10361136268

Some Contributions to Criminometric Models

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A cursory glance at the recent literature on criminal statistics reveals and brings to light a significant shift in the level of mathematical and statistical rigor brought to research efforts concerning Crime and Justice. Now-a-days modeling in criminology is new and fascinating. Police efficiency is an important aspect of police finding to improve police performance. This book has brought out to develop some Criminometric models based on some probability distributions to measure the efficiency of police force.A criminometric model based on a probability distribution function similar to an exponential distribution has been developed to measure the performance of police force in terms of police augmenting technological change. Two types of logistic specifications namely type I and Type II generalized half logistic probability distribution functions have been used to propose two types of criminometric models to measure the police efficiency.The relative efficiency of the police force has been decomposed two types of efficiency by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Beside these, a criminometric forecasting model has been proposed to obtain precise crime forecasts. ····· 1036118758

Teoriya proizvol`nogo vkhodyashchego potoka

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Strogoe izlozhenie matematicheskikh osnov proizvol`nykh vkhodyashchikh potokov, kotorymi yavlyayutsya informatsionnye potoki, tsirkuliruyushchie v sovremennykh telekommunikatsionnykh setyakh, pri ikh paketnoy peredache. Razrabotana teoriya rekurrentnykh potokov, potokov s ogranichennym posledeystviem i proizvol`nykh potokov s zavisimymi momentami postupleniya trebovaniy (ordinarnykh, neordinarnykh i s zavisimost`yu velichiny postupayushchey gruppy trebovaniy ot sostoyaniya potoka) s primeneniyami k nestatsionarnym sistemam i setyam massovogo obsluzhivaniya s etimi potokami. Dlya spetsialistov v oblasti teorii veroyatnostey i ee primeneniy, teorii massovogo obsluzhivaniya, informatsionno-vychislitel`nykh setey, telekommunikatsionnykh setey svyazi i peredachi informatsii, inzhenerov, aspirantov i studentov starshikh kursov vuzov. Retsenzent zamestitel` direktora Instituta prikladnoy matematiki DVO RAN, professor, doktor fiziko-matematicheskikh nauk G.Sh. Tsitsiashvili. ····· 103614779

Estadística Aplicada a la Educación con Actividades de Aprendizaje

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En los programas ministeriales de matemática se establecen argumentos de Estadística y Probabilidades, sin embargo no se estudian adecuadamente ó no se estudian tales temas. Se quiere estimular a una mejor enseñanza los conceptos básicos de dichos fundamentos. No se quiere dar un recetario de fórmulas con el único propósito de acatar cumplimiento a un programa establecido, al contrario se pretende presentar éste texto de manera atractiva, interesante y aplicativa. El texto Estadística aplicada a la educación con actividades de aprendizaje para su desarrollo se ha dividido en cuatro capítulos tomando en cuenta los aspectos de generalidades, descripción, herramienta y conclusiones bajo los nombres de Generalidades, Estadística Descriptiva, Teoría de las Probabilidades e Inferencia Estadística. Al final de los capítulos 2 al 4, se puede realizar ejercicios aplicativos a la teoría vista, a lo que llamamos actividades de aprendizaje utilizando paquetes estadísticos como el MINITAB, SPSS entre otros y se puede también realizar en la hoja de cálculo EXCEL. En el tercero exponemos la parte teórica-práctica de las Probabilidades requerida en el cuarto de Inferencia Estadística. ····· 1036122984

Análisis y Predicción de Series no lineales

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Ante la necesidad de predecir a corto plazo la velocidad de viento local, como recurso energético surgen un sinfín de procedimientos, cuya finalidad es optimizar la producción de parques eólicos y gestión de las compañías distribuidoras de energía eléctrica. Generalmente, utilizan de un modo u otro datos experimentales in situ, obviando el comportamiento no lineal de estas series. Este libro recoge la investigación encaminada a analizar y predecir el comportamiento de series no lineales, como la velocidad de viento, desde el ámbito del `data mining`. La metodología que aquí se propone, interconecta análisis de wavelets, teoría del caos y redes neuronales junto con técnicas clusters. Experimentalmente, se ha aplicado sobre la velocidad de viento, medida en las instalaciones del Centro de Desarrollo de Energías Renovables del CIEMAT, Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas, Medioambientales y Tecnológicas, adscrito al Ministerio de Economía y Competitivdad. Este estudio es de gran utilidad, a todo aquél que le interese y apasione la predicción de la velocidad de viento, la energía que produce y por qué no, la de cualquier otro proceso con comportamiento no lineal. ····· 1036123113

Rural Development in the European Union

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Each year the Commission publishes an Agricultural Annual Report on the agricultural situation in the European Union. A large part of the report is devoted to statistical information on Community agriculture. This is drawn up on the basis of information from Eurostat and data collected by the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development. Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development also devotes a special annual publication `Agriculture in the European Union - Statistical and economic information`, separate from the Agricultural Annual Report, to a wide range of subjects, including the economic situation in agriculture, structures, trade, markets, financial aspects and rural development. With the evolution of the Common Agricultural Policy, rural development gained in importance and information needs have also evolved. For this reason, DG Agriculture and Rural Development has prepared a specific report aiming to provide, on a regular basis, a comprehensive set of information on rural areas and the implementation of the EU`s rural development policy. ····· 10361117805

Biplots Robustos

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Los gráficos Biplot están basados en productos escalares y se interpretan en términos de proyecciones, ángulos y distancias al centro de gravedad y/o entre los marcadores, por tanto es de esperar un efecto distorsionante de la estructura de covariación, motivado por la presencia de datos discordantes (conocidos en la mayor parte de la literatura como outliers) con el patrón general, los cuales pueden deberse a un error de procedimiento, a una observación que ocurre como consecuencia de un acontecimiento extraordinario, como observaciones que se sitúan fuera del rango ordinario de valores de cada variable, o como observaciones que aún, estando dentro del rango esperado de cada variable, son únicas en su combinación de valores entre las variables. El trabajo lo hemos estructurado en cuatro capítulos: el primero está dedicado a presentar los métodos Biplot propuestos por GABRIEL en 1971, y el HJ-Biplot propuesto por GALINDO en 1985. El segundo presenta los procedimientos más usuales para la detección de outliers uni y multivariantes. En el capítulo tercero se presenta tres formas robustas de realizar un análisis Biplot y en el último se aplican las ideas desarrolladas con datos. ····· 10361136988

Statistiques de la Santé

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Cette deuxième édition des Chiffres clés sur la santé répond à la demande croissante de la politique communautaire de la santé, qui souhaite disposer d`un ensemble de données sur la santé et d`indicateurs qui soient complets, cohérents et comparables au niveau international. Cette demande s`exprime dans le nouveau programme d`action communautaire dans le domaine de la santé publique (2003-2008) adopté par le Parlement européen et le Conseil le 23 septembre 2002 dans le cadre de l`action dans le domaine de la santé publique. Le présent rapport est surtout remarquable par le fait qu`Eurostat y réunit des informations portant sur un vaste éventail de questions liées à la santé et provenant des sources de données les plus autorisées dans le monde: New Cronos d`Eurostat, Éco-Santé de l`OCDE, Santé pour tous de l`OMS, FAO, Organisation internationale pour la recherche sur le cancer, Euro HIV, études épidémiologiques spécifiques, etc. ····· 10361117887

Teoría de la Probabilidad

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Uno de los objetivos del libro es dar las bases para el estudio de la teoría avanzada de la probabilidad . Se destacan las aplicaciones a los sistemas de comunicación, la mecánica cuántica y la física estadística. Se presenta el método simple de simulación de variables aleatorias y la simulación dinámica de Monte Carlo. Se considera la teoría de distribuciones y en particular la distribución delta de Dirac para dar un tratamiento sistemático tanto a los conceptos probabilísticos como a las aplicaciones. El libro puede ser utilizado en un curso de pregrado o posgrado por estudiantes de matemáticas, ingeniería y ciencias. ····· 10361137827


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